Predictive Analysis of Water Demand for Providence, Rhode Island

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Providence Water supplies water from the Scituate Reservoir in Rhode Island by selling directly to its customers and by selling water in bulk to several neighboring water suppliers. Altogether, ~60% of the population of Rhode Island receives water directly or indirectly from Providence Water. Despite population growth in the Providence metropolitan area over the past few decades, overall water demand in the region has decreased. Decreases in residential-sector water use, even as population has increased, are consistent with other utilities in the U.S. during the same time period. Understanding the factors that have led to water-use declines in Providence over the past 20 years, coupled with predictions of future population growth, regional climate change effects, and changes in water use efficiency, will produce more accurate forecasts of future water demand for Providence Water. Results from this study may be useful in other water-use research across the nation as well.

The objectives of this study are twofold:

1. Create models that analyze the historical decline in water demand between 2005 and 2020 to understand the causes of demand reductions
2. Use knowledge gained from these models to predict future water demand in 2030 and 2040

This study considers water demand by single-family residential, multi-family residential, commercial/government, and industrial customers within the supply district of Providence Water and the surrounding districts of water suppliers who purchase water from Providence Water. The project uses machine learning models to estimate water demand as a function of weather, socioeconomic, financial, and demographic factors. With this information, predictions of water use in 2030 and 2040 can be made that consider trends in population growth, socioeconomic factors, and climate change.