Publications
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Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path
Debris-flow volumes can increase along their flow path by entraining sediment stored in the channel bed and banks, thus also increasing hazard potential. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments and field investigations all indicate that the saturation conditions of the sediment along the flow path can greatly influence the amount of sediment entrained. However, this process is usually n
Authors
Anna Könz, Jacob Hirschberg, Brian McArdell, Benjamin B. Mirus, Tjalling de Haas, Perry Bartelt, Peter Molnar
Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico
Hurricane Maria induced about 70 000 landslides throughout Puerto Rico, USA, including thousands each in three municipalities situated in Puerto Rico's rugged Cordillera Central range. By combining a nonlinear soil-depth model, presumed wettest-case pore pressures, and quasi-three-dimensional (3D) slope-stability analysis, we developed a landslide susceptibility map that has very good performance
Authors
Rex L. Baum, Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, William Schulz, Matthew J. Tello
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building damage fore
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean
Post-wildfire debris flows
Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to infiltrat
Authors
Joseph Gartner, Jason W. Kean, Francis K. Rengers, Scott W. McCoy, Nina S. Oakley, Gary J. Sheridan
The influence of anthropogenic regulation and evaporite dissolution on earthquake-triggered ground failure
Remote sensing observations of Searles Lake following the 2019 moment magnitude 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake reveal an area where surface ejecta is arranged in a repeating hexagonal pattern that is collocated with a solution-mining operation. By analyzing geologic and geotechnical data, here we show that the hexagonal surface ejecta is likely not a result of liquefaction. Instead, we pro
Authors
Paula Madeline Burgi, Eric M. Thompson, Kate E. Allstadt, Kyle Dennis Murray, Henry (Ben) Mason, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Devin Katzenstein
Satellite Interferometry Landslide Detection and Preliminary Tsunamigenic Plausibility Assessment in Prince William Sound, Southcentral Alaska
Regional mapping of actively deforming landslides, including measurements of landslide velocity, is integral for hazard assessments in paraglacial environments. These inventories are also critical for describing the potential impacts that the warming effects of climate change have on slope instability in mountainous and cryospheric terrain. The objective of this study is to identify slow-moving la
Authors
Lauren N. Schaefer, Jinwook Kim, Dennis M. Staley, Zhong Lu, Katherine R. Barnhart
The 2022 Chaos Canyon landslide in Colorado: Insights revealed by seismic analysis, field investigations, and remote sensing
An unusual, high-alpine, rapid debris slide originating in ice-rich debris occurred on June 28, 2022, at 16:33:16 MDT at the head of Chaos Canyon, a formerly glacier-covered valley in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA. In this study, we integrate eyewitness videos and seismic records of the event with meteorological data, field observations, pre- and post-event satellite imagery, and uncrewed
Authors
Kate E. Allstadt, Jeffrey A. Coe, Elaine Collins, Francis K. Rengers, Anne Mangeney, Scott M. Esser, Jana Pursley, William L. Yeck, John Bellini, Lance R. Brady
Kinematic evolution of a large paraglacial landslide in the Barry Arm fjord of Alaska
Our warming climate is adversely affecting cryospheric landscapes via glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and associated slope destabilization. In Prince William Sound, Alaska, the rapid retreat of Barry Glacier has destabilized the slopes flanking the glacier, resulting in numerous landslides. The largest of these landslides (∼500 Mm3 in volume) is more than 2 km wide and has the potential t
Authors
Lauren N. Schaefer, Jeffrey A. Coe, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Brian D. Collins, Dennis M. Staley, Michael E. West, Ezgi Karasozen, Charles Prentice-James Miles, Gabriel J. Wolken, Ronald P. Daanan, Kelli Wadsworth Baxstrom
Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: Application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA
Probabilistic models to inform landslide early warning systems often rely on rainfall totals observed during past events with landslides. However, these models are generally developed for broad regions using large catalogs, with dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of landslide occurrences. This study evaluates strategies for training landslide forecasting models with a scanty record of landslide-t
Authors
Annette Patton, Lisa Luna, Josh J. Roering, Aaron Jacobs, Oliver Korup, Benjamin B. Mirus
How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire?
Runoff-generated debris flows are a potentially destructive and deadly response to wildfire until sufficient vegetation and soil-hydraulic recovery have reduced susceptibility to the hazard. Elevated debris-flow susceptibility may persist for several years, but the controls on the timespan of the susceptible period are poorly understood. To evaluate the connection between vegetation recovery and d
Authors
Andrew Paul Graber, Matthew A. Thomas, Jason W. Kean
Runout model evaluation based on back-calculation of building damage
We evaluated the ability of three debris-flow runout models (RAMMS, FLO2D and D-Claw) to
predict the number of damaged buildings in simulations of the 9 January 2019 Montecito, California, debris-flow event. Observations of building damage after the event were combined with OpenStreetMap building footprints to construct a database of all potentially impacted buildings. At the estimated event volum
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Jason W. Kean
Distribution of large boulders on the deposit of the West Salt Creek rock avalanche, western Colorado
On May 25, 2014, a 54.5-million cubic meter rock avalanche in the West Salt Creek valley, Mesa County, Colorado, traveled 4.6 kilometers, leaving a deposit that covers about 2.2 square kilometers. To check the particle-size distribution of the deposit for information about the high mobility of the avalanche, we estimated boulder distribution density for the entire deposit by counting 1-meter (m) o
Authors
Adrian C. Lewis, Rex L. Baum, Jeffrey A. Coe