Future Scenarios of Soil-climate for Sagebrush Ecosystems
Climate forecasts provide a unique tool to researchers and wildlife managers, allowing for a look into potential future climate conditions. Climate models provide multiple scenarios that assume different mitigation polices implemented by governments. By using these data in a statistical model to estimate soil-climate conditions, we can investigate the connection between future climate and vegetation for understanding potential changes in landscape patterns and habitat dynamics. These efforts are intended to help researchers, wildlife and habitat managers, and policymakers, better understand the consequences of future climates and thereby provide tools that can inform future restoration planning, risk of exotic plant invasion and fire, and drought mitigation.
Background
Globally, climate researchers have developed approximately 100 climate models among 49 groups. The latest version of models, known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) sixth assessment, were released in April 2022 and include many improvements that account for increased knowledge of climate processes (for example, ice, water, clouds, and physical processes). These latest models also include new emission pathways called shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) to capture a wider range of future outcomes.
Soil-climate describes the temperature and moisture conditions important for plant growth and function. It affects a host of services we expect from functioning ecosystems, such as vegetation patterns, recovery and restoration potential, fuel conditions affecting risk of fire, risk of exotic species invasion, carbon storage, health and diversity of animals and microbes, and primary production of vegetation. Using data of future climate scenarios to estimate soil-climate outcomes will provide important information that researchers and managers can use for planning purposes.
Research Implications
Soil-climate estimates of future climate scenarios will provide insight into how future conditions may differ from historic conditions. By associating soil-climate conditions to vegetation under known historic conditions, we can assess how changes in soil-climate will affect future vegetation patterns, such as growth and recovery rates, restoration potential, risk of exotic plant invasion and fire, and drought. Understanding soil-climate conditions in the future based on multiple emission scenarios is beneficial to wildlife and habitat managers. For example, future scenarios of soil moisture can improve the success of restoration planning by avoiding areas that are likely to become too dry for planting. Having such models developed will also increase understanding of how vegetation patterns may change and how those changes may affect wildlife. With anticipated increased temperatures and dryer conditions in the western United States, we are likely to observe an increase in fires that pose risks to wildlife and people. Therefore, our establishment of fire occurrence with soil-climate conditions can be extrapolated to future soil-climate conditions, thereby, providing risks of future fires.
Funders
U.S. Geological Survey (Ecosystem Mission Area and Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative) and North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center.
References
Mahony, C.R., T. Wang, A. Hamann, and A.J. Cannon. 2022. A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America. International Journal of Climatology. In press. doi.org/10.1002/joc.7566.
Soil-climate for Managing Sagebrush Ecosystems
Climate Averages of Soil-climate for Sagebrush Ecosystems
Climate forecasts provide a unique tool to researchers and wildlife managers, allowing for a look into potential future climate conditions. Climate models provide multiple scenarios that assume different mitigation polices implemented by governments. By using these data in a statistical model to estimate soil-climate conditions, we can investigate the connection between future climate and vegetation for understanding potential changes in landscape patterns and habitat dynamics. These efforts are intended to help researchers, wildlife and habitat managers, and policymakers, better understand the consequences of future climates and thereby provide tools that can inform future restoration planning, risk of exotic plant invasion and fire, and drought mitigation.
Background
Globally, climate researchers have developed approximately 100 climate models among 49 groups. The latest version of models, known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) sixth assessment, were released in April 2022 and include many improvements that account for increased knowledge of climate processes (for example, ice, water, clouds, and physical processes). These latest models also include new emission pathways called shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) to capture a wider range of future outcomes.
Soil-climate describes the temperature and moisture conditions important for plant growth and function. It affects a host of services we expect from functioning ecosystems, such as vegetation patterns, recovery and restoration potential, fuel conditions affecting risk of fire, risk of exotic species invasion, carbon storage, health and diversity of animals and microbes, and primary production of vegetation. Using data of future climate scenarios to estimate soil-climate outcomes will provide important information that researchers and managers can use for planning purposes.
Research Implications
Soil-climate estimates of future climate scenarios will provide insight into how future conditions may differ from historic conditions. By associating soil-climate conditions to vegetation under known historic conditions, we can assess how changes in soil-climate will affect future vegetation patterns, such as growth and recovery rates, restoration potential, risk of exotic plant invasion and fire, and drought. Understanding soil-climate conditions in the future based on multiple emission scenarios is beneficial to wildlife and habitat managers. For example, future scenarios of soil moisture can improve the success of restoration planning by avoiding areas that are likely to become too dry for planting. Having such models developed will also increase understanding of how vegetation patterns may change and how those changes may affect wildlife. With anticipated increased temperatures and dryer conditions in the western United States, we are likely to observe an increase in fires that pose risks to wildlife and people. Therefore, our establishment of fire occurrence with soil-climate conditions can be extrapolated to future soil-climate conditions, thereby, providing risks of future fires.
Funders
U.S. Geological Survey (Ecosystem Mission Area and Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative) and North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center.
References
Mahony, C.R., T. Wang, A. Hamann, and A.J. Cannon. 2022. A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America. International Journal of Climatology. In press. doi.org/10.1002/joc.7566.