In addition, the USGS has set up the tools that first responders and citizens can use to track the impacts of the storm as it comes ashore. These tools will be updated with more information as it becomes available.

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Coastal Impacts—What will happen to the shoreline?

The leading edge where impacts will be first felt is the shoreline. The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting that Ian will make landfall as a hurricane along the west coast of Florida, bringing with it life-threatening storm surge. This surge, along with the normal tidal cycle, raises water levels higher on the beach, allowing storm waves to pound protective sand dunes. The combination of surge, tides and waves can result in significant erosion, and may even overtop coastal dunes and inundate areas inland.

Storm surge is among the most dangerous natural hazards unleashed by hurricanes and tropical storms and experts are predicting some areas in Ian’s path could get life threatening flooding. Surge can destroy homes and businesses; wipe out roads, bridges, water and sewer systems; and profoundly alter coastal landscapes.

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To monitor potential storm surge, tide and waves from Ian, crews from the USGS Caribbean Florida Water Science Center and USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center are deploying more than 150 sensors in Florida and along the Georgia coast. These sensors provide essential water level and wave data that local, state and federal officials can use to inform decisions that help protect lives and property. After the storm, scientists use the information gathered by the sensors to improve future storm surge and coastal change forecasts. The sensor data can also be used to guide recovery efforts, plan evacuation routes, identify areas hardest hit by storm tide flooding, inform building code decisions and improve structure designs to increase public safety.

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In addition, the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer provides an hourly 6-day forecast of the potential for coastal change in Ian’s path, giving communities in coastal areas an idea of what dune erosion to anticipate, from no impacts to the potential for inundation of dunes. USGS experts are also working to update the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal with worst-case forecasted coastal impacts for Ian.

Inland Flooding Potential

It’s the end of the wet season for Florida, so many of the streams in the area likely to be affected by Ian are already at above average flow. The extra rainfall from Ian may increase chances of flooding, especially in areas where storm tide prevents the streams from effectively draining to the Gulf of Mexico.

USGS crews are currently in the field to check on streams in the region and to ensure USGS streamgages are working properly before Ian arrives. In addition, USGS crews plan to install temporary Rapid-Deployment Gages in targeted locations to provided additional real-time information to augment the USGS streamgage network. The USGS data provided is a key resource used by the National Weather Service and others to make flood forecasts and flood control decisions.

Communities can get real-time stream-level information from the USGS National Water Dashboard.

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Start with Science

The National Hurricane Center is providing regular updates on the progression of Hurricane Ian, and the USGS is ready to support response efforts with the best-available information. As new sensors and equipment are set up and new forecasts are made, the USGS will update all of its tools so that first-responders, communities and individuals can stay informed as Ian makes landfall.

More Information:

• USGS Flood Event Viewer—Hurricane Ian
• Coastal Change Hazards portal
• USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer
  • Note: Naples-area coastal inundation forecasts can be accessed by clicking the Miami Region
• USGS National Water Dashboard
• National Hurricane Center—Hurricane Ian
• USGS Hurricane Ian page
• Ready.Gov and Listo.gov