Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Water availability in the upper Rio Grande Basin is dependent on winter and monsoon season precipitation. Consecutive years of drought and above average temperatures have diminished water supply and increased demand for water in this region. The increasing gap between water supply and demand is cause for concern. Climate projections for the southwestern and south central United States suggest that temperatures will continue to increase, affecting seasonal precipitation and water availability. To better manage current water supply and prepare for possible future changes, water managers need projections of future streamflow and landscape conditions that may affect future water supply.



The project researchers are currently calibrating the U.S Geological Survey’s Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to represent the natural state of the basin without managed water operations such as reservoirs or diversions. The calibrated PRMS model will be used to estimate how water flow will respond to projected future temperature and precipitation. Several model outputs, including streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, will also be used to help provide a clear picture of how hydrologic changes affect the water resources we use for farming, municipal water supply, healthy ecological streamflow, and other uses. Also, because the future is uncertain, the project researchers will integrate multiple future climate conditions to project a range of likely future hydrologic conditions. The team will use stakeholder meetings and an interactive web page to disseminate results and provide water managers with useable information about the magnitude, uncertainty, and implications of hydrologic response to climate change in the future.