Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making

Areas along the Arctic coast are changing the fastest among all of Earth’s habitats due to climate change. The Arctic coast is a fragile ecosystem that provides habitat for migratory birds, endangered species, and species critical for local subsistence living. In this area, permafrost is thawing rapidly, changing how much and when water reaches rivers, ponds, lakes, wetlands and groundwater. In addition, there is also a growing interest in oil and gas resource exploration. With ongoing permafrost thaw, future warming, and interests in oil and gas extraction in the coastal plain (also known as the 1002 area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it is urgent to improve the understanding of this area and its vulnerability to change. In response, this 3-year project will develop detailed maps of the 1002 area, document soil temperature and moisture change, and measure surface water flow and routes to rivers, lakes and ponds.



This research will use (1) field surveys to assess vegetation, topography, permafrost conditions and river discharge, (2) airborne and satellite imagery to document surface conditions and water flow through time and in unprecedented detail, and (3) advanced modeling to simulate historic (1950 – 2020) and future (2021 – 2100) land cover, permafrost and water flow dynamics, assuming changes in climate and development. The resulting data will help identify areas vulnerable to change, allow managers to better understand risks and guide potential oil and gas development.



This project will substantially improve our understanding of the type, speed and location of changes happening in the 1002 area. It also provides tools to inform management decisions that balance wildlife management and development to meet the Refuge’s mission and purpose.