Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley

This project built on an existing regional conservation partnership to use the most recent downscaled climate model projections to forecast the likely impacts of climate change to species and ecosystems in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV). The objective of this work was to develop and test ecological and biological models to facilitate regional adaptive management of wildlife resources and the forest and wetland ecosystems that support them in the LMV. The modeled projections were then used to evaluate climate change effects on high priority bird species, waterfowl, amphibians, and fisheries. In particular, the researchers sought to answer two key questions: (1) what are the impacts of predicted climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and services, particularly those affecting DOI trust resources and species, in the LMV? and (2) will current restoration, mitigation, and adaptation strategies meet desired conservation targets and outcomes under projected future climates?. This work was completed by an interdisciplinary research team composed of scientists and managers from the US Geological Survey, the US Fish and Wildlife Service (LMV Joint Venture, Fisheries), and Ducks Unlimited, Inc.