Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are expected to continue or even accelerate, it is important to evaluate megafire risks and locate high-risk areas.
This project will develop a new Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) and make future projections of megafire probability in Oklahoma and Texas from 2024 to 2100. Outcomes and products from this project will include: (1) A machine learning-based MERES for predicting megafire risks; (2) Gridded datasets and maps of megafire probability from 2024 to 2100 under climate change and fuel change scenarios; (3) A web-based platform to disseminate project results, and; (4) Peer-reviewed journal articles for MERES development and future megafire risks.
This project will have positive ecological and social impacts on controlling woody plant encroachment, restoring rangeland ecosystem services, protecting human safety, property, and wildlife habitats, and developing fire-adapted communities. The intended end users include (1) land and fuel managers and prescribed fire planners from state and federal agencies; (2) government agencies and tribal organizations for community wildfire protection and adaptation, wildlife conservation, and disaster response; and (3) scientific researchers in fire modeling, climate change, and natural resource management.
