To investigate desert vegetation dynamics, I undertook an open—ended study of a site that offers a combination of multiple observations through time with continuous protection from domestic livestock and other human impacts. The site is MacDougal Crater in the Sierra del Pinacate Reserve, Sonora, Mexico. Three sources of data have been used: a series of exactly matched photographs, begun in 1907; detailed permanent—plot maps, dating from 1959—1960; and an age—distribution analysis of a 170—yr—old population of Carnegiea gigantea. The crater vegetation is dominated by the woody perennials Cercidium microphyllum, Encelia farinosa, Prosopis sp., and Larrea tridentata, and the columnar cactus Carnegiea gigantea. Various populations of Larrea tridentata declined 50—90%, and Cercidium declined 60%, during the first half of this century with little or no recruitment since. Carnegiea numbers increased fourfold over the same period. A 200—fold increase in Prosopis in the playa—like crater center occurred in the early 1970s. Elsewhere on the crater floor, Encelia density increased markedly during the same period from insignificant levels in the early 1960s. Age distribution analysis for the Carnegiea population reveals three major establishment peaks during the 1790 period. Recruitment and morality records from the three sources of data are compared with regional climate records. The high mortality for some of the species was probably the result of the prolonged drought during 1936—1964. Establishment surges for some appear related to periods of unusually heavy precipitation during certain seasons. Clearly, desert communities are highly responsive to changes in the climate regime under which they grow.
