Toni Lyn Morelli, Ph.D.
Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, genetics, and translational ecology to help resource managers conserve species in the face of global change.
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change and invasive species. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a continent-wide network on Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Stony Brook University
B.S. in Zoology, Michigan State University
Affiliations and Memberships*
Member of the USGS EMA DEIA Leadership Council, 2022
Member of the NECASC Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Committee, 2021-2022
Leader of the USGS CASC DEIA Recruitment and Retention Working Group, 2021-2022
Member of the USGS CASC Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility (DEIA) Leadership Council, 2020-2022
Co-Leader of the CASC Inclusive Mentoring Working Group, 2021-2022
Associate Editor for Conservation Science & Practice, 2018-2022; recognized as 1 of 2 top CSP AEs
Member of the American Geophysical Union
Member of The Ecological Society of America
Member of the Society of Conservation Biology
Member of The Wildlife Society
Honors and Awards
Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Broad Participation (to NE Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network)
University of Massachusetts Department of Environmental Conservation (ECo) Inaugural Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Justice Faculty Award, 2021
USFWS Species Support Partnership (NE Region) Research Grant, 2021-2023
USGS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NE Region) Research Grant, 2019-21
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area Invasive Species Program Research Grant, 2020-2022
National Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant (co-I), 2020-2022
Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant, 2019-2020
USGS-NPS Natural Resource Preservation Partnership, 2019-2020
Second Century Stewardship Fellowship 2018 (Postdoctoral Supervisee)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2017 (Co-PI)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2018 (Co-PI)
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants 2017 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources (awarded to the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool Partnership)
YES Internship Awards (x2), USGS, 2017
USGS STAR Award, 2016
National Park Service Grant, Bioblitz Analysis, 2016
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 19
Filter Total Items: 62
A climate risk management screening and assessment review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing...
Authors
Janet Alice Cushing, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Toni Lyn Morelli, Bonnie Myers
Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change
AimPopulations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either...
Authors
Claire Stewart Teitelbaum, Alexej P.K. Sirén, Ethan Coffel, Jane R. Foster, Jacqueline L. Frair, Joseph W. Hinton, Radley W. Horton, David W. Kramer, Corey Lesk, Colin Raymond, David W. Wattles, Katherine Zeller, Toni Lyn Morelli
Embracing the Future: Promoting adaptation and resilience to invasive species and climate change
No abstract available.
Authors
Bianca Lopez, Carrie Brown-Lima, Justin Dalaba, Annette E. Evans, Meghan Graham MacLean, Toni Lyn Morelli
Adaptation actions for resistance, resilience, and transformation
No abstract available.
Authors
A. Kent Evans, Bianca Lopez, Meghan Graham MacLean, Toni Lyn Morelli, R. Narayanan, M. Ocana
Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?
TThe vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic...
Authors
Diana Stralberg, Dominique Arseneault, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Quinn Barber, Erin M. Bayne, Yan Boulanger, Carissa Brown, Hilary Cooke, Kevin Devito, Jason Edwards, Cesar Estevo, Nadele Flynn, Lee E. Frelich, E. H. (T.) Hogg, Mark Johnston, Travis Logan, Steven M. Matsuoka, Paul Moore, Toni Lyn Morelli, Julienne Morissette, Elizabeth Nelson, Hedvig Nenzén, Scott E. Nielsen, Marc-André Parisien, John Pedlar, David T. Price, Fiona K A Schmiegelow, Stuart M. Slattery, Oliver Sonnentag, Daniel P. Thompson, Ellen Whitman
Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions
Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and...
Authors
Cameron W. Barrows, Aaron R. Ramirez, Lynn C. Sweet, Toni Lyn Morelli, Constance I. Millar, Neil Frakes, Jane Rodgers, Mary Frances Mahalovich
Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane
Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical...
Authors
Toni Lyn Morelli, Cameron W. Barrows, Aaron R. Ramirez, Jennifer M. Cartwright, David Ackerly, Tatiana D. Eaves, Joseph L. Ebersole, Meg A. Krawchuk, Benjamin Letcher, Mary Frances Mahalovich, Garrett W Meigs, Julia Michalak, Constance I. Millar, Rebecca M. Quinones, Diana Stralberg, James H. Thorne
Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?
Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science...
Authors
William V. Deluca, Thomas W. Bonnot, Alexej P.K. Sirén, Radley W. Horton, Curtice R. Griffin, Toni Lyn Morelli
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn L. Carter, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura M. Thompson
Adjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts
As Earth’s climate rapidly changes, species range shifts are considered key to species persistence. However, some range-shifting species will alter community structure and ecosystem processes. By adapting existing invasion risk assessment frameworks, we can identify characteristics shared with high-impact introductions and thus predict potential impacts. There are fundamental differences...
Authors
Piper D. Wallingford, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jenica M. Allen, Evelyn M. Beaury, Dana M. Blumenthal, Bethany A. Bradley, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Regan Early, Emily J. Fusco, Deborah E. Goldberg, Ines Ibáñez, Brittany B. Laginhas, Montserrat Vila, Cascade J.B. Sorte
Gardening with climate-smart native plants in the Northeast
No abstract available.
Authors
Bethany A. Bradley, A. Bayer, Bridget Griffin, Sydni Joubran, Brittany B. Laginhas, Lara Munro, Sam Talbot, Jenica M. Allen, Audrey Barker-Plotkin, Evelyn M. Beaury, Carrie Brown-Lima, Emily J. Fusco, Hailey Mount, Bailey Servais, Toni Lyn Morelli
Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States
Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and...
Authors
Sarah R. Weiskopf, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Lisa G. Crozier, Sarah Gaichas, Roger Griffis, Jessica E. Halofsky, Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Roldan C. Muñoz, Andrew J. Pershing, David L. Peterson, Rajendra Poudel, Michelle D Staudinger, Ariana Eileen Sutton-Grier, Laura M. Thompson, James M. Vose, Jake Weltzin, Kyle Powys Whyte
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 19
Filter Total Items: 62
A climate risk management screening and assessment review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing...
Authors
Janet Alice Cushing, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Toni Lyn Morelli, Bonnie Myers
Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change
AimPopulations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either...
Authors
Claire Stewart Teitelbaum, Alexej P.K. Sirén, Ethan Coffel, Jane R. Foster, Jacqueline L. Frair, Joseph W. Hinton, Radley W. Horton, David W. Kramer, Corey Lesk, Colin Raymond, David W. Wattles, Katherine Zeller, Toni Lyn Morelli
Embracing the Future: Promoting adaptation and resilience to invasive species and climate change
No abstract available.
Authors
Bianca Lopez, Carrie Brown-Lima, Justin Dalaba, Annette E. Evans, Meghan Graham MacLean, Toni Lyn Morelli
Adaptation actions for resistance, resilience, and transformation
No abstract available.
Authors
A. Kent Evans, Bianca Lopez, Meghan Graham MacLean, Toni Lyn Morelli, R. Narayanan, M. Ocana
Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?
TThe vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic...
Authors
Diana Stralberg, Dominique Arseneault, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Quinn Barber, Erin M. Bayne, Yan Boulanger, Carissa Brown, Hilary Cooke, Kevin Devito, Jason Edwards, Cesar Estevo, Nadele Flynn, Lee E. Frelich, E. H. (T.) Hogg, Mark Johnston, Travis Logan, Steven M. Matsuoka, Paul Moore, Toni Lyn Morelli, Julienne Morissette, Elizabeth Nelson, Hedvig Nenzén, Scott E. Nielsen, Marc-André Parisien, John Pedlar, David T. Price, Fiona K A Schmiegelow, Stuart M. Slattery, Oliver Sonnentag, Daniel P. Thompson, Ellen Whitman
Validating climate‐change refugia: Empirical bottom‐up approaches to support management actions
Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and...
Authors
Cameron W. Barrows, Aaron R. Ramirez, Lynn C. Sweet, Toni Lyn Morelli, Constance I. Millar, Neil Frakes, Jane Rodgers, Mary Frances Mahalovich
Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane
Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical...
Authors
Toni Lyn Morelli, Cameron W. Barrows, Aaron R. Ramirez, Jennifer M. Cartwright, David Ackerly, Tatiana D. Eaves, Joseph L. Ebersole, Meg A. Krawchuk, Benjamin Letcher, Mary Frances Mahalovich, Garrett W Meigs, Julia Michalak, Constance I. Millar, Rebecca M. Quinones, Diana Stralberg, James H. Thorne
Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?
Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science...
Authors
William V. Deluca, Thomas W. Bonnot, Alexej P.K. Sirén, Radley W. Horton, Curtice R. Griffin, Toni Lyn Morelli
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn L. Carter, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura M. Thompson
Adjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts
As Earth’s climate rapidly changes, species range shifts are considered key to species persistence. However, some range-shifting species will alter community structure and ecosystem processes. By adapting existing invasion risk assessment frameworks, we can identify characteristics shared with high-impact introductions and thus predict potential impacts. There are fundamental differences...
Authors
Piper D. Wallingford, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jenica M. Allen, Evelyn M. Beaury, Dana M. Blumenthal, Bethany A. Bradley, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Regan Early, Emily J. Fusco, Deborah E. Goldberg, Ines Ibáñez, Brittany B. Laginhas, Montserrat Vila, Cascade J.B. Sorte
Gardening with climate-smart native plants in the Northeast
No abstract available.
Authors
Bethany A. Bradley, A. Bayer, Bridget Griffin, Sydni Joubran, Brittany B. Laginhas, Lara Munro, Sam Talbot, Jenica M. Allen, Audrey Barker-Plotkin, Evelyn M. Beaury, Carrie Brown-Lima, Emily J. Fusco, Hailey Mount, Bailey Servais, Toni Lyn Morelli
Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States
Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and...
Authors
Sarah R. Weiskopf, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Lisa G. Crozier, Sarah Gaichas, Roger Griffis, Jessica E. Halofsky, Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Roldan C. Muñoz, Andrew J. Pershing, David L. Peterson, Rajendra Poudel, Michelle D Staudinger, Ariana Eileen Sutton-Grier, Laura M. Thompson, James M. Vose, Jake Weltzin, Kyle Powys Whyte
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government