Development of Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the Yuba River Basin, Northeastern California, with application for streamflow predictability and flood forecasting
A new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and an automated Object User Interface (OUI) will be constructed and calibrated for drainage areas in the Yuba River Basin above Marysville. PRMS simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than is currently available to DWR. Climate change in the Yuba River Basin will be identified in historical streamflow, precipitation, and temperature data, from 20 years of observed data and up to 150 years of synthesized data. The calibrated Yuba PRMS will be used to test how the basin streamflow responds to changing climate, by inputting historical and synthesized climate data into the model.
This study will provide an analysis tool for forecasting seasonal and longer term streamflow variations, and for evaluating climate and land cover variations in theYuba River Basin. This study will directly or indirectly address several water-resource issues identified in the "Strategic Directions for the Water Resources Division, 1999-2008": drinking water availability, the suitability of aquatic habitat for biota (by providing forecasted streamflow simulations), hydrologic hazards (flooding), hydrologic system management, and effects of climate on water resource management. This work will develop tools relevant to the CASWC science issues that underlie the management of watershed and hydrologic hazards, and address the USGS focus on climate change studies.
Specific tasks are: 1) collect relevant spatial and temporal data, including a long record of natural streamflows to be used for calibrations, assemble and manage data in a GIS, and analyze data to understand the physical system of the watershed, 2) construct the Yuba PRMS model by delineating model area and hydrologic response units (HRUs), estimating model parameters, and calibrating the model, 3) build the object user interface (OUI), 4) Release calibrated Yuba PRMS and OUI to DWR for operational trials, and 5) assess the basin's response to climate change.
A new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and an automated Object User Interface (OUI) will be constructed and calibrated for drainage areas in the Yuba River Basin above Marysville. PRMS simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than is currently available to DWR. Climate change in the Yuba River Basin will be identified in historical streamflow, precipitation, and temperature data, from 20 years of observed data and up to 150 years of synthesized data. The calibrated Yuba PRMS will be used to test how the basin streamflow responds to changing climate, by inputting historical and synthesized climate data into the model.
This study will provide an analysis tool for forecasting seasonal and longer term streamflow variations, and for evaluating climate and land cover variations in theYuba River Basin. This study will directly or indirectly address several water-resource issues identified in the "Strategic Directions for the Water Resources Division, 1999-2008": drinking water availability, the suitability of aquatic habitat for biota (by providing forecasted streamflow simulations), hydrologic hazards (flooding), hydrologic system management, and effects of climate on water resource management. This work will develop tools relevant to the CASWC science issues that underlie the management of watershed and hydrologic hazards, and address the USGS focus on climate change studies.
Specific tasks are: 1) collect relevant spatial and temporal data, including a long record of natural streamflows to be used for calibrations, assemble and manage data in a GIS, and analyze data to understand the physical system of the watershed, 2) construct the Yuba PRMS model by delineating model area and hydrologic response units (HRUs), estimating model parameters, and calibrating the model, 3) build the object user interface (OUI), 4) Release calibrated Yuba PRMS and OUI to DWR for operational trials, and 5) assess the basin's response to climate change.