Decision Support Tool to Assess the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Restoring Wetlands within National Park Service Lands
USGS is developing a modeling tool that will let National Park Service assess the carbon sequestration potential of future wetland restoration projects.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Landscape degradation and land use/landcover (LULC) change affects carbon sequestration in ecosystems. To better understand and forecast ecosystem carbon stocks across landscapes experiencing land management and climate changes, integrated models of land cover and carbon dynamics are required. In this project we are using the Land Use and Carbon Simulator (LUCAS; Sleeter et al., 2018, Sleeter et al., 2019, Sleeter et al. 2022) to estimate changes in carbon sequestration within National Park Service (NPS) wetlands in response to future land management practices. LUCAS is an open-source stochastic simulation model developed by our team that links a spatially-explicit simulation model of landscape change with a carbon budget model (Daniel et al., 2016, Daniel et al., 2018 – see Figure 1). LUCAS simulates the annual changes in the carbon pools that occur due to growth, turnover, decomposition, natural disturbances, and land management for multiple cover classes, including terrestrial forests, forested wetlands, and herbaceous wetlands, among others.
The model provides the flexibility for decision-makers to set up “what-if” management scenarios regarding the effects of possible future changes to land-use policy. The result is a decision-support tool that generates locally responsive, meaningful, and ultimately actionable forecasts and subsequent rankings.
The LUCAS model has previously been applied to address questions regarding carbon sequestration and land management at multiple scales, including the management unit or refuge-level (Sleeter et al., 2017), state-level (Sleeter et al., 2019), regional and national scales (Sleeter et al, 2018, Sleeter et al. 2022). While there are several approaches to modeling changes in ecosystem carbon over time, LUCAS is unique in its ability to project spatially-explicit, fine-scale (i.e., 30m resolution or less) effects of land management alternatives on carbon, wall-to-wall, across all terrestrial ecosystem types in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS).
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: We are developing a modeling tool that will allow NPS staff (and other interested parties) to assess the carbon sequestration potential of future wetland restoration projects at two scales: (1) a coarse-scale national model that can be used to compare the carbon sequestration potential of restoring wetlands anywhere in NPS lands within CONUS; and (2) a project-specific model that can be used to estimate, in greater detail, the carbon sequestration potential of a particular park-level wetland restoration project. Both options will be based on LUCAS, and will be delivered together as an interactive, spatially-explicit modeling tool through the SyncroSim software platform.
Future Steps: This project will provide a national version of the LUCAS model that can be used to assess carbon sequestration potential of wetland restoration across all CONUS NPS lands. It will also provide a project-specific version of the model that will focus on three NPS sites: Yosemite National Park (Figure 2), Indiana Dunes National Park, and Captain John Smith Chesapeake National Historic Trail. This tool will help guide future wetland restoration projects on NPS lands with the aim to increase carbon sequestration. This project also informs our national and local understanding of land stewardship through modeling the carbon benefits of restoration of wetlands in CONUS NPS lands.
USGS is developing a modeling tool that will let National Park Service assess the carbon sequestration potential of future wetland restoration projects.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Landscape degradation and land use/landcover (LULC) change affects carbon sequestration in ecosystems. To better understand and forecast ecosystem carbon stocks across landscapes experiencing land management and climate changes, integrated models of land cover and carbon dynamics are required. In this project we are using the Land Use and Carbon Simulator (LUCAS; Sleeter et al., 2018, Sleeter et al., 2019, Sleeter et al. 2022) to estimate changes in carbon sequestration within National Park Service (NPS) wetlands in response to future land management practices. LUCAS is an open-source stochastic simulation model developed by our team that links a spatially-explicit simulation model of landscape change with a carbon budget model (Daniel et al., 2016, Daniel et al., 2018 – see Figure 1). LUCAS simulates the annual changes in the carbon pools that occur due to growth, turnover, decomposition, natural disturbances, and land management for multiple cover classes, including terrestrial forests, forested wetlands, and herbaceous wetlands, among others.
The model provides the flexibility for decision-makers to set up “what-if” management scenarios regarding the effects of possible future changes to land-use policy. The result is a decision-support tool that generates locally responsive, meaningful, and ultimately actionable forecasts and subsequent rankings.
The LUCAS model has previously been applied to address questions regarding carbon sequestration and land management at multiple scales, including the management unit or refuge-level (Sleeter et al., 2017), state-level (Sleeter et al., 2019), regional and national scales (Sleeter et al, 2018, Sleeter et al. 2022). While there are several approaches to modeling changes in ecosystem carbon over time, LUCAS is unique in its ability to project spatially-explicit, fine-scale (i.e., 30m resolution or less) effects of land management alternatives on carbon, wall-to-wall, across all terrestrial ecosystem types in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS).
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: We are developing a modeling tool that will allow NPS staff (and other interested parties) to assess the carbon sequestration potential of future wetland restoration projects at two scales: (1) a coarse-scale national model that can be used to compare the carbon sequestration potential of restoring wetlands anywhere in NPS lands within CONUS; and (2) a project-specific model that can be used to estimate, in greater detail, the carbon sequestration potential of a particular park-level wetland restoration project. Both options will be based on LUCAS, and will be delivered together as an interactive, spatially-explicit modeling tool through the SyncroSim software platform.
Future Steps: This project will provide a national version of the LUCAS model that can be used to assess carbon sequestration potential of wetland restoration across all CONUS NPS lands. It will also provide a project-specific version of the model that will focus on three NPS sites: Yosemite National Park (Figure 2), Indiana Dunes National Park, and Captain John Smith Chesapeake National Historic Trail. This tool will help guide future wetland restoration projects on NPS lands with the aim to increase carbon sequestration. This project also informs our national and local understanding of land stewardship through modeling the carbon benefits of restoration of wetlands in CONUS NPS lands.