MODFLOW-2005 model used to analyze water-use scenarios in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

Three withdrawal scenarios spanning from 2014 through 2040 were simulated using a previously published three-dimensional groundwater flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain (NJCP) (Gordon and Carleton, 2023). This model, run in MODFLOW-2005 (version 1.12.00), was recently updated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ensuring the models continued relevance for water-resource management and development. The three withdrawal scenarios were simulated in support of an update to the New Jersey Statewide Water Supply Plan by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP). The scenarios simulate nominal-water loss,  optimal-water loss, and  full-allocation conditions. The nominal water-loss scenario assumes that all public community water supply (PCWS) systems will achieve the current (as of 2018) median values from the systems reporting data on water loss in their distribution systems. The optimal water-loss scenario assumes that all systems will achieve water loss rates roughly equivalent to the systems with the least amount of water loss. Withdrawal rates for both scenarios were based on analysis done at Rutgers University (Van Abs, 2018). In the full-allocation scenario the withdrawal amounts were site specific from an NJDEP Bureau of Water Allocation allocation tool calculation based on data from May 20, 2021 and represents withdrawal amounts at the full-allocation level of each well. This USGS data release contains all the input and output files for the simulated scenarios described above in the associated model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245028).

References:
-Gordon, A.D., and Carleton, G.B., 2023, Updates to the regional groundwater-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1980-2013: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5066, 116 p., accesses on March 14, 2024, at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20235066.

-Van Abs, D.J., Jiayi, D., and Pierson, E., 2018, Water needs through 2040 for New Jersey public community water supply systems: New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Water Supply and Geoscience, prepared by Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, accesses May 9, 2024, at https://dep.nj.gov/wp-content/uploads/water-supply-plan/van-abs-et-al-2….