Computer model projection

Map shows flooding and shoreline change projections in the Imperial Beach area of southern San Diego County, CA, from the ARkStorm scenario.

ARkStorm: Initial evaluations of the CoSMoS model were performed as part of the USGS Multihazards Demonstration Project (Porter and others, 2011). A team of atmospheric scientists with expertise in west coast storms used information from two powerful west coast storms in 1969 and 1986 to simulate an extreme storm event with a recurrence interval of at least 100 years (Dettinger and others, 2011). This extreme winter scenario, entitled “ARkStorm,” provided a time-series of wind and atmospheric pressure fields that served as boundary conditions for the CoSMoS model.