Probability of piping plover habitat with predicted sea-level rise

Forecasted piping plover habitat availability in the Otis Pike Wilderness Area, Fire Island based on sea-level rise predictions out to the year 2050 were made under scenarios that assumed (middle panel) moderate shoreline change (Moderate SLC), where occasional beach nourishment would maintain the 2014 shoreline position and (bottom panel) No Intervention, where no efforts would be made to maintain the 2014 shoreline position. This area is minimally developed and largely unmanaged. A third scenario assuming human intervention to maintain shoreline position; however, results did not differ greatly from initial conditions (top panel). 

Read the paper to learn more: "Predicted Sea-Level Rise-Driven Biogeomorphological Changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for People and Plovers."