Satellite image, Kīlauea summit, Hawai‘i. Dashed line shows area co...

The exact direction that a future pyroclastic surge will travel cannot be known with certainty. A future surge of similar size, erupted from a similar location in the caldera, could go in any direction at least as far as the solid-line circle indicates. One or more such surges could potentially enter the residential areas of Volcano Village (VV), Mauna Loa Estates (ML), and the Volcano Golf Course (GC), and overrun much of the infrastructure in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, including HVO. A few thousand people live near the national park in these areas. In addition, ash and larger-sized rock fragments would fall to the ground downwind over a much larger area, easily reaching Ka‘ū, Puna, and South Hilo.