TC Chamberlin Modeling Center: climate-change modeling

Climate-change scenario results by A, average annual low streamflow; B, statistical summary of groundwater recharge; and C, monthly average recharge to the groundwater system. Panel A shows the time series of model results; synthetic climate used to infill between General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs are greyed out. Uncertainty within the GCM/emission scenario time series is reflected by the envelope; the average of an emission scenario across GCMs is shown as a colored line. The horizontal line reflects measured the current conditions calculated using the average of all GCMs and emission scenarios. Panels B and C show a boxplot that distills the averages from the two GCM-reported future periods (2060–65 and 2095–2100) and compares them to current conditions. (USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2016-5091)