The Southwest is projected to face significant climate challenges in coming decades; and many of these stresses have already begun. In recent years, multiple climate assessments have been developed for the Southwest that corroborate forecasts of remarkable change to vegetation pattern and the vulnerability of regional ecosystems and suggest that measurable change is already ongoing. Disturbance events, particularly uncharacteristic fire, provide triggers for vegetation type conversions and new plant succession patterns. An understanding of post-fire forest recovery coupled with a synthesis of existing climate vulnerability research is needed to underpin and develop a regional climate adaptation strategy that assists National Forest and public land managers in addressing existing and anticipated risks from multiple stressors. Of particular importance is the modeling of long-term trends and recovery pathways in montane forests under the nexus of climate and disturbance, not just immediate responses.
This project aims to prepare managers with a framework for meeting the extensive change that is forecast for Southwest ecosystems with warming temperatures and more variable conditions. The new management paradigm will be based on climate adaptation as a means to optimize the continued delivery of ecosystem services. The research team will work with managers and partners to develop a climate-informed conservation strategy for sustainability of Southwest ecosystems and to investigate the dynamics of post-mortality forest recovery using an ecosystem simulation modeling approach that integrates the complexity of multiple drivers and scenarios, species and genotype differences in seedling and sapling tolerance and growth requirements, and general climate conditions.
