Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska
Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety.
As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding of the complex interaction between the changing southern Alaska landscape, avalanches, natural resources, and people in their natural and built environments. The proposed effort centers on the snow avalanche-affected landscape in southern Alaska, where climate model projections indicate increases in air temperature, precipitation intensity, and rain-on-snow events over the coming decades. These changes could significantly impact the extent, behavior, and predictability of snow avalanches.
This project will use climate model projections to drive large-scale avalanche modeling in order to simulate future avalanche dynamics and quantify changes in avalanche behavior with respect to avalanches from 1981-2010. The results from this analysis will be made publicly available as an online interactive map and data portal which will allow collaboration with research partners to examine the impacts of rain-on-snow and intense precipitation events in a warmer atmosphere on avalanche behavior. Furthermore, this information will allow the assessment of potential impacts on public safety, infrastructure, access to natural resources, landscape and glacier change, and wildlife. The resulting research will lead to critically important advances in Alaska avalanche research, science-based adaptation, mitigation, and response strategies to avalanches, and will increase stakeholder preparedness and resilience through an effort centering on coproduction and actionable science.
- Source: USGS Sciencebase (id: 600f2132d34e162231fecdd7)
Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety.
As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding of the complex interaction between the changing southern Alaska landscape, avalanches, natural resources, and people in their natural and built environments. The proposed effort centers on the snow avalanche-affected landscape in southern Alaska, where climate model projections indicate increases in air temperature, precipitation intensity, and rain-on-snow events over the coming decades. These changes could significantly impact the extent, behavior, and predictability of snow avalanches.
This project will use climate model projections to drive large-scale avalanche modeling in order to simulate future avalanche dynamics and quantify changes in avalanche behavior with respect to avalanches from 1981-2010. The results from this analysis will be made publicly available as an online interactive map and data portal which will allow collaboration with research partners to examine the impacts of rain-on-snow and intense precipitation events in a warmer atmosphere on avalanche behavior. Furthermore, this information will allow the assessment of potential impacts on public safety, infrastructure, access to natural resources, landscape and glacier change, and wildlife. The resulting research will lead to critically important advances in Alaska avalanche research, science-based adaptation, mitigation, and response strategies to avalanches, and will increase stakeholder preparedness and resilience through an effort centering on coproduction and actionable science.
- Source: USGS Sciencebase (id: 600f2132d34e162231fecdd7)