Improving Land Change Models for Climate Adaptation, Urban Development, and Conservation Action Across the US Caribbean

Climate and economic stressors are causing large numbers of people to emigrate from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, even while new development continues. To provide a tool to help managers and policymakers make informed decisions about development and conservation, researchers for this Southeast CASC-supported project will co-produce a land change model that can simulate future scenarios of development, population change, and conservation in response to climate hazards.



Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are experiencing high levels of out-migration caused by economic and climate stress, yet new homes continue to be built, often near areas of conservation concern. As climate change increases the risk of intense coastal storms, flooding, and extreme heat across the region, decisions about housing development and natural area protection will have large impacts on future human wellbeing. Computer models can make predictions of land and population change and test possible outcomes of different decisions and policies. However, land change models need constant updates to account for changing circumstances, and current models struggle to accurately predict futures where development continues despite people leaving in large numbers.



This project team will partner with policy makers and resource managers who are involved in managing protected areas, climate adaptation, and land-use planning in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Together, they will co-produce a new land change model that will support decision-making in the understudied region that is experiencing both new residential development and emigration.



Project outcomes will include a toolkit of maps, analyses, and guidance documents projecting land change by 2070, based on various “what-if” scenarios co-created with partners. This information will highlight future development “hotspots” and areas of high conservation priority. It will also serve as a framework for natural resource managers and planners to make informed decisions to preserve human wellbeing and protect ecosystems.