Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

A non-intrusive approach for efficient stochastic emulation and optimization of model-based nitrate-loading management decision support

February 25, 2020

Use of physically-motivated numerical models like groundwater flow-and-transport models for probabilistic impact assessments and optimization under uncertainty (OUU) typically incurs such a computational burdensome that these tools cannot be used during decision making. The computational challenges associated with these models can be addressed through emulation. In the land-use/water-quality context, the linear relation between nitrate loading and surface-water/groundwater nitrate concentrations presents an opportunity for employing an efficient model emulator through the application of impulse-response matrices. When paired with first-order second-moment techniques, the emulation strategy gives rise to the “stochastic impulse-response emulator” (SIRE). SIRE is shown to facilitate non-intrusive, near-real time, and risk-based evaluation of nitrate-loading change scenarios, as well as nitrate-loading OUU subject to surface-water/groundwater concentration constraints in high decision variable and parameter dimensions. Two case studies are used to demonstrate SIRE in the nitrate-loading context.

    Publication Year 2020
    Title A non-intrusive approach for efficient stochastic emulation and optimization of model-based nitrate-loading management decision support
    DOI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104657
    Authors Jeremy T. White, Matthew Knowling, Michael N. Fienen, Daniel T. Feinstein, Garry W. McDonald, Catherine R. Moore
    Publication Type Article
    Publication Subtype Journal Article
    Series Title Environmental Modelling and Software
    Index ID 70218295
    Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
    USGS Organization New York Water Science Center; Wisconsin Water Science Center; Upper Midwest Water Science Center