Climate and dispersal ability limit future habitats for Gila monsters in the Mojave Desert

Describing future habitat for sensitive species can be helpful in planning conservation efforts to ensure species persistence under new climatic conditions. The Gila monster (Heloderma suspectum) is an iconic lizard of the southwestern United States. The northernmost range of Gila monsters is the Mojave Desert, an area experiencing rapid human population growth and urban sprawl. To understand current and potential future habitat for Gila monsters in the Mojave Desert, we fit ensemble species distribution models using known locations and current environmental variables known to be important to the species' biology. We then projected future suitable habitat under different climate forecasts based on IPCC emission scenarios. To ensure that Gila monsters would be able to disperse to newly suitable habitat, we fit Brownian Bridge movement models using telemetry data from two locations in Nevada. This model indicated that Gila monsters prefer to move through areas with a moderate slope and higher shrub cover. Modeled current suitable habitat for Gila monsters in Nevada was primarily in rugged bajadas and lower elevations at the bases of mountain ranges. Predictions of potential future habitat suggested that overall habitat suitability through 2082 would remain relatively stable throughout the study area in the lower emissions scenario, but in the high emissions scenario potential habitat is greatly reduced in many lower-elevation areas. Future habitat areas at higher elevations under the high emissions scenario showed moderate increases in suitability, though occupancy would likely be limited by Gila monster dispersal capabilities. Finally, we determined how well the protected area network of our study area encompassed future Gila monster habitat to highlight potential opportunities to protect this important species.