Middleton Island, located at the seaward edge of the continental shelf 50 km from the base of the inner wall of the Aleutian Trench, affords an opportunity to make land-based measurements of uplift near the toe of the Prince William Sound megathrust, site of the 1964, M = 9.2, Alaska earthquake. Leveling surveys (1973–1993) on Middleton Island indicate roughly uniform tilting (~1 µrad/a down to the northwest) of the island, and GPS surveys (1993–2012) show an uplift rate of 14 mm/a of the island relative to fixed North America. The data are consistent with a combined (coseismic and postseismic) uplift (in meters) due to the 1964 earthquake as a function of time τ (years after the earthquake) u(τ) = (3.5 + 1.21 log10 [1 + 1.67 τ]) H(τ) where 3.5 is the coseismic uplift and H(τ) is 0 for τ < 0 and 1 otherwise. The current uplift on Middleton Island is attributed to continuous slip on a fault splaying off from the megathrust, and the long-term uplift is the superposition of the effects of past earthquakes, each earthquake being similar to the 1964 event. Then, the predicted uplift at time t due to a sequence of earthquakes at times tiwould be . From studies of strandlines associated with the uplifted terraces on Middleton Island, Plafker et al. (1992) estimated the occurrence times of the last six earthquakes and measured the present-day elevations of those strandlines. The predicted uplift is in rough agreement with those measurements. About half of the predicted uplift is due to postseismic relaxation from previous earthquakes.
