Current and future potential net greenhouse gas sinks of existing, converted, and restored marsh and mangrove forest habitats

Marsh and mangrove forest habitats are productive at capturing and storing carbon, thus actions to protect and create coastal blue carbon sinks could help mitigate global warming. Dredged material is often used to create coastal habitats and evaluating the carbon impact of placement alternatives (PA) could help inform restoration and climate policies. Output from a Delft3D-FM morphodynamics and hydrodynamics model informed a Coastal Wetlands Carbon Model at years 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2050. Three model simulations were used and included (1) no restoration (PA1), (2) restoration dominated with mangroves (PA2), and (3) restoration dominated with marshes (PA3) at a different location. Habitats of brackish marsh, saline marsh, mangrove forest, and saline open water that surround Port Fourchon, Louisiana, U.S.A., were evaluated to estimate the net greenhouse gas (GHG) flux of the study area with and without restoration. In years 2020 and 2025, the study area was estimated to be a net GHG sink (−1.1 ± 0.2 MMT CO₂e) with or without mangrove and marsh-dominated restoration. At years 2030 and 2050, even with habitat loss due to sea-level rise, the study area for all simulations was projected to remain a net GHG sink. At year 2050, +0.1 ± 0.04 MMT CO₂e could be avoided with restoration. At the restoration project scale, mangrove-dominated restoration (PA2) had net GHG sinks (−0.07 to −0.09 MMT CO₂e) near the marsh-dominated restoration (PA3, −0.09 to −0.13 MMT CO₂e). Thus, these modeled results could help inform future restoration planning and climate policies.