Estimating lake-wide abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes: extrapolating from sampled streams using regression models

Lake-wide abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) can be used as one means to evaluate sea lamprey control efforts in the Great Lakes. Lake-wide abundance in each Great Lake was the sum of estimates for all streams thought to contribute substantial numbers of sea lampreys. A subset of these streams was sampled with traps and mark-recapture studies were conducted. When sea lampreys were captured in traps, but no mark-recapture study was conducted, abundance was estimated from a relation between trap catch and mark-recapture estimates observed in other years. In non-sampled streams, a regression model that used stream drainage area, geographic region, larval sea lamprey, production potential, the number of years since the last lampricide treatment, and spawning year was used to predict abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys. The combination of estimates from sampled and non-sampled streams provided a 20-year time series of spawning-phase sea lamprey abundance estimates in the Great Lakes.