Factors related to probability of joint flooding on paired streams in Ohio

Factors related to the probability of joint flooding on paired streams were investigated. Stream pairs were considered to have flooded jointly at the design-year flood threshold (corresponding to the 2-, 10-, 25-, or 50-year instantaneous peak stream flow) if peak stream flows at both streams in the pair were observed or predicted to have equaled or exceeded the threshold on a given calendar day. Daily mean stream-flow data were used as a surrogate for instantaneous peak stream-flow data to determine which flood thresholds were equaled or exceeded on any given day. Instantaneous peak stream-flow data, when available, were used preferentially to assess when the flood threshold was exceeded. Observed probabilities of joint flooding were computed as the ratios of the number of days when stream flows at both streams concurrently equaled or exceeded their flood thresholds (events) to the number of days when stream flows at either stream equaled or exceeded its flood threshold (trials). Logistic regression equations for estimating the probability of joint flooding at the 2-year flood threshold were developed on the basis of event-trial ratio and basin characteristic data. Distance between drainage area centroids, the ratio of the smaller drainage area to the larger drainage area, mean drainage area, and the centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees were the characteristics most closely associated with the probability of joint flooding on paired streams in Ohio. In general, the probability of joint flooding decreased with an increase in centroid distance and increased with increases in drainage area ratio, mean drainage area, and centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees.