High-resolution remote sensing and multistate occupancy estimation identify drivers of spawning site selection in fall chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) across a sub-Arctic riverscape

Groundwater upwellings provide warmer, stable overwinter temperatures for developing salmon embryos, which may be particularly important in cold, braided, gravel-bed sub-Arctic rivers. We used a three-year time series of aerial counts and remote sensing to estimate the distribution of low and high aggregations of spawning fall chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), classify approximately 0.5 km long river segments by geomorphic channel type, and map thermal variability along a 25.4 km stretch of the Teedriinjik River, Alaska. We used a dynamic multistate occupancy model to estimate detectability, occupancy, and the dynamics of spawning aggregations among river segments. Detectability was higher for large (>150) relative to smaller aggregations. Unoccupied segments were likely to remain so from year to year; low abundance spawning segments were dynamic and rarely remained in that state for multiple years, while ∼20%–35% of high abundance segments remained stable, indicating the presence of high-quality spawning habitat. Spawning habitat use was associated with warmer water temperatures likely caused by groundwater upwellings. We identified spawning habitat characteristics and trends in usage by fall chum salmon, which will inform land management decisions and assist in evaluating impacts of shifting climate conditions and resource management on Arctic salmon populations.