Modeling framework to estimate spawning and hatching locations of pelagically-spawned eggs

Identifying spawning and hatching locations is vital to controlling invasive fish and conserving imperiled fish, which can be difficult for pelagically-spawning species with semi-buoyant eggs. In freshwater systems, this reproductive strategy is common among cyprinid species, such as Chinese carp species currently threatening the Great Lakes. Following the confirmation that one of these species, Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), was spawning in a Great Lakes tributary, we developed a modeling framework to combine field data with hydraulic models to calculate the most probable spawning and hatching locations for collected eggs. Our results indicate that the estimated spawning location encompassed habitat consistent with spawning sites in Grass Carp’s native range. Additionally, all eggs were identified to have hatched in the river, increasing the likelihood of successful recruitment. This modeling framework can be used to estimate spawning and hatching locations for Chinese carp species, as well as all pelagic, riverine spawners. Spawning and hatching locations provide key information to researchers about the reproductive requirements of species and to agencies about how best to manage populations for control or restoration.