Oil, gas field growth projections: Wishful thinking or reality?

The observed `field growth' for the period from 1992 through 1996 with the US Geological Survey's (USGS) predicted field growth for the same period are compared. Known field recovery of field size is defined as the sum of past cumulative field production and the field's proved reserves. Proved reserves are estimated quantities of hydrocarbons which geologic and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to recoverable from known fields under existing economic and operating conditions. Proved reserve estimates calculated with this definition are typically conservative. The modeling approach used by the USGS to characterize `field growth phenomena' is statistical rather that geologic in nature.