Sea ice concentration decline in an important Adélie penguin molt area

Unlike in many polar regions, the spatial extent and duration of the sea ice season have increased in the Ross Sea sector of the Southern Ocean during the satellite era. Simultaneously, populations of Adélie penguins, a sea ice obligate, have been stable or increasing in the region. Relationships between Adélie penguin population growth and sea ice concentration are complex, with sea ice driving different, sometimes contrasting, demographic patterns. Adélie penguins undergo a complete molt annually, replacing all their feathers while fasting shortly after the breeding season. Unlike most penguin species, a majority of Adélies are thought to molt on sea ice, away from the breeding colonies, which makes this period particularly difficult to study. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that persistent areas of high sea ice concentration provide important molting habitat for Adélie penguins. We analyzed data from geolocating dive recorders deployed year-round on 195 adult penguins at two colonies in the Ross Sea from 2017-2019. We identified molt by detecting extended gaps in post-breeding diving activity and used associated locations to define two key molting areas. Remotely sensed data indicated that sea ice concentration during molt was anomalously low during the study and has declined in the primary molt area since 1980. Further, annual return rates of penguins to breeding colonies were positively correlated with sea ice concentration in the molt areas over 20 years. Together these results suggest that sea ice conditions during Adélie penguin molt may represent a previously underappreciated annual bottleneck for adult survival.