Some hydrological impacts of climate change for the Delaware River Basin

To gain insight into possible impacts of climate change on water availability in the Delaware River, two models are linked. The first model is a monthly water balance model that converts the temperature and precipitation values generated by a random number generator to monthly streamflow values. The monthly streamflow values are input to a second model that simulates the operation of reservoirs and diversions within the basin. The output for the two linked models consists of time series of reservoir levels and streamflow at key points in the basin. Model results for a base case, in which monthly temperature and precipitation statistics are unchanged from historical records, are compared to several changed-climate scenarios under a standard set of rules of operation.