Statistical analyses of hydrologic system components and simulation of Edwards aquifer water-level response to rainfall using transfer-function models, San Antonio region, Texas

In 2003 the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, did a study using historical data to statistically analyze hydrologic system components in the San Antonio region of Texas and to develop transfer-function models to simulate water levels at selected sites (wells) in the Edwards aquifer on the basis of rainfall. Water levels for two wells in the confined zone in Medina County and one well in the confined zone in Bexar County were highly correlated and showed little or no lag time between water-level responses. Water levels in these wells also were highly correlated with springflow at Comal Springs. Water-level hydrographs for 35 storms showed that an individual well can respond differently to similar amounts of rainfall. Fourteen water-level-recession hydrographs for a Medina County well showed that recession rates were variable. Transfer-function models were developed to simulate water levels at one confined-zone well and two recharge-zone wells in response to rainfall. For the confined-zone well, 50 percent of the simulated water levels are within 10 feet of the measured water levels, and 80 percent of the simulated water levels are within 15 feet of the measured water levels. For one recharge-zone well, 50 percent of the simulated water levels are within 5 feet of the measured water levels, and 90 percent of the simulated water levels are within 14 feet of the measured water levels. For the other recharge-zone well, 50 percent of the simulated water levels are within 14 feet of the measured water levels, and 90 percent of the simulated water levels are within 27 feet of the measured water levels. The transfer-function models showed that (1) the Edwards aquifer in the San Antonio region responds differently to recharge (effective rainfall) at different wells; and (2) multiple flow components are present in the aquifer. If simulated long-term system response results from a change in the hydrologic budget, then water levels would be difficult to simulate accurately.