Variation in Prairie Chub hatch relationships across wet and dry years in the upper Red River basin

Objective

The Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis is a poorly studied minnow species endemic to the upper Red River basin and is of both state and federal conservation interest due to uncertainty about its life history and potential listing status. The upper Red River basin of Oklahoma and Texas is a harsh environment where drought and extreme flow events are exacerbated by human alterations. As an assumed pelagic-broadcast-spawning minnow, the Prairie Chub is capable of a protracted spawning season and larval fish survival is assumed to be linked to discharge and streamflow variability.

Methods

We systematically collected 2,017 age-0 Prairie Chub from seven sites (North Fork Red River, Salt Fork Red River, Pease River, Red River, Prairie Dog Town Fork Red River, North Wichita River, and South Wichita River) with variable flow patterns during April–September 2019 and May–August 2020. We used otolith age estimates and back calculations to determine successful spawning dates. We used a hurdle model framework to examine relationships between hatch probability and hatch frequency.

Result

Hatch probability had a negative relationship with calendar day and declined as calendar day increased. Hatch counts peaked in late June and early July and declined thereafter in 2019 but showed no discernible peak during the spawning season in 2020. Hatch probability during the spawning season increased with relative flow and air temperature. Increased hatch counts were also positively related to discharge variability (CV) for the 10 d prior to hatch dates.

Conclusion

Our findings indicated that successful hatches had considerable spatial and temporal variability, with some sites contributing minimally to the population during some years. Spatial and temporal variability of hatch probability and hatch frequencies pose a variety of considerations for future conservation and management efforts, particularly given the pending federal listing status of the species.