Michelle Stern, PhD
(she/her)Michelle Stern, PhD is a hydrologist in the Watersheds Group at the California Water Science Center (CAWSC).
Her research focus is on process-based hydrological modeling to study the effects of land use, climate change, wildfires, and management practices on water availability and water quality. Dr. Stern also incorporates remote sensing and monitoring data to improve models and gain a better understanding of local to regional hydrologic processes including soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, and recharge. She co-developed the California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) and continues to make improvements and updates to deliver fine-resolution historical and future climate scenario data for many studies focused on hydrology, ecology, and biology.
Science and Products
Culturally Prescribed Fire
Culturally prescribed burning has been long practiced by the Yurok Tribe for a variety of reasons. This study explores using culturally prescribed fire as a land management tool for increasing the resiliency of streams and watersheds.
Incorporating Impacts of Wildfire and Vegetation Recovery into a Watershed Model of the Feather River Basin
Changes in vegetation in a large watershed due to wildfire can have a substantial influence on actual evapotranspiration rates and water availability. After a large, intense wildfire, evapotranspiration rates are expected to decrease. As vegetation reestablishes, the evapotranspiration rates increase over a period of years, back to pre-fire conditions. Watershed models typically use input layers...
Rendering High-Resolution Hydro-Climatic Data for Southern California
Natural resource managers and researchers often need long-term averages of historical and future climate scenarios for their study area yet may not have the resources to make these summaries. This project will provide high quality, detailed maps of historical and projected future climate and hydrologic conditions for California and a finer scale version for southern California. The project wil
Monitoring and modeling soil moisture to improve runoff forecasting and drought characterization in the Feather River Basin
Drought, along with recent wildfires, have had enormous impacts downstream on water quantity and quality. These conditions have greatly impacted the agriculture and the residents of the nearby Central Valley.
New Technologies for Mapping Surface Soil Moisture Over Wildfire-Prone Landscapes
A partnership between the USGS, Pepperwood Preserve, and Black Swift LLC aims to map soil and fuel moisture over wildfire-prone landscapes.
Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Culturally Prescribed Fires as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands
Climate Change is making our environment unpredictable. Increased persistence of drought is causing deaths of plants and animals across our landscapes. However, drought amongst the western United States is not a new thing. Native American populations have been living with drought since time immemorial and practiced culturally prescribed fire practices to foster the landscape for an environment tha
Sediment transport, streamflow, and climate change: long-term resilience of the Bay-Delta
Sediment supply is important to the health of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and San Francisco Bay (Bay-Delta) ecosystem. Sediment eroded from upland source areas in the Sacramento and San Joaquin watersheds is transported through the rivers to the Bay-Delta where it is deposited in mudflats and tidal wetlands, which in turn helps protect against the effects of sea-level rise. Sediment...
Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California
Soil moisture is a critical variable for understanding the impacts of drought on ecological, hydrological, and agricultural systems, as soil moisture content has a direct affect on runoff amounts. Runoff occurs as the result of precipitation (both rainfall and snowfall) that is in excess of the demands of evaporation from land surfaces, transpiration from vegetation, and infiltration into soils...
Researching Climate Conditions for CAL FIRE Wildfire Restoration Efforts
In California, drought and warmer climates have increased the prevalence, severity, and duration of wildfires. These fires have destroyed over 129 million trees. In the aftermath of this devastation, there is heightened urgency to increase the capacity of seedling production, particularly for the lower-elevation and private lands that CAL FIRE is responsible to help manage. To support CAL FIRE in...
Basin Characterization Model (BCM)
The Basin Characterization Model (BCM) is a simple grid-based model that calculates the water balance for any time step or spatial scale by using climate inputs, precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature. The BCM can translate fine-scale maps of climate trends and projections into the hydrologic consequences, to permit evaluation of the impacts to water availability at regional, watershed...
Increasing Soil Organic Carbon to Mitigate Greenhouse Gases and Increase Climate Resiliency for California
Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding...
Science and Products
Culturally Prescribed Fire
Culturally prescribed burning has been long practiced by the Yurok Tribe for a variety of reasons. This study explores using culturally prescribed fire as a land management tool for increasing the resiliency of streams and watersheds.
Incorporating Impacts of Wildfire and Vegetation Recovery into a Watershed Model of the Feather River Basin
Changes in vegetation in a large watershed due to wildfire can have a substantial influence on actual evapotranspiration rates and water availability. After a large, intense wildfire, evapotranspiration rates are expected to decrease. As vegetation reestablishes, the evapotranspiration rates increase over a period of years, back to pre-fire conditions. Watershed models typically use input layers...
Rendering High-Resolution Hydro-Climatic Data for Southern California
Natural resource managers and researchers often need long-term averages of historical and future climate scenarios for their study area yet may not have the resources to make these summaries. This project will provide high quality, detailed maps of historical and projected future climate and hydrologic conditions for California and a finer scale version for southern California. The project wil
Monitoring and modeling soil moisture to improve runoff forecasting and drought characterization in the Feather River Basin
Drought, along with recent wildfires, have had enormous impacts downstream on water quantity and quality. These conditions have greatly impacted the agriculture and the residents of the nearby Central Valley.
New Technologies for Mapping Surface Soil Moisture Over Wildfire-Prone Landscapes
A partnership between the USGS, Pepperwood Preserve, and Black Swift LLC aims to map soil and fuel moisture over wildfire-prone landscapes.
Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Culturally Prescribed Fires as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands
Climate Change is making our environment unpredictable. Increased persistence of drought is causing deaths of plants and animals across our landscapes. However, drought amongst the western United States is not a new thing. Native American populations have been living with drought since time immemorial and practiced culturally prescribed fire practices to foster the landscape for an environment tha
Sediment transport, streamflow, and climate change: long-term resilience of the Bay-Delta
Sediment supply is important to the health of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and San Francisco Bay (Bay-Delta) ecosystem. Sediment eroded from upland source areas in the Sacramento and San Joaquin watersheds is transported through the rivers to the Bay-Delta where it is deposited in mudflats and tidal wetlands, which in turn helps protect against the effects of sea-level rise. Sediment...
Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California
Soil moisture is a critical variable for understanding the impacts of drought on ecological, hydrological, and agricultural systems, as soil moisture content has a direct affect on runoff amounts. Runoff occurs as the result of precipitation (both rainfall and snowfall) that is in excess of the demands of evaporation from land surfaces, transpiration from vegetation, and infiltration into soils...
Researching Climate Conditions for CAL FIRE Wildfire Restoration Efforts
In California, drought and warmer climates have increased the prevalence, severity, and duration of wildfires. These fires have destroyed over 129 million trees. In the aftermath of this devastation, there is heightened urgency to increase the capacity of seedling production, particularly for the lower-elevation and private lands that CAL FIRE is responsible to help manage. To support CAL FIRE in...
Basin Characterization Model (BCM)
The Basin Characterization Model (BCM) is a simple grid-based model that calculates the water balance for any time step or spatial scale by using climate inputs, precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature. The BCM can translate fine-scale maps of climate trends and projections into the hydrologic consequences, to permit evaluation of the impacts to water availability at regional, watershed...
Increasing Soil Organic Carbon to Mitigate Greenhouse Gases and Increase Climate Resiliency for California
Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding...