Bay Area Ensemble Modeling for Conservation and Biodiversity
The objective of this study is to provide downscaled ensemble projections of climate and hydrology for the next century for the state of California with specific application to the San Francisco Bay Area.
Climate change is impacting ecosystems in the 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay Area and there is a need for future climate projections and hydrologic response modeling for analyses to assist in adaptation for conservation and maintaining biodiversity.
The objective of this study is to provide downscaled ensemble projections of climate and hydrology for the next century for the state of California with specific application to the San Francisco Bay Area.
Science Plan: The U.S. Geological Survey California Water Science Center (USGS), in cooperation with Pepperwood Foundation, UC Berkeley, UC Davis, Climate Central and Creekside Science will develop and analyze climate and hydrology datasets for the 21st century for the Bay Area. The ensemble approach includes all AR4 and AR5 projections that are available via CMIP3 and CMIP5 websites that include precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature. These projections will be downscaled to 270-m for hydrologic model application using the Basin Characterization Model for 2000-2100. Previous versions of this model (Flint and Flint, 2012; Thorne and others, 2012) are being refined to include improved climate and properties data and additional model calibration. The results will receive processing into decadal and 30-yr averages for all climate variables. Results will be analyzed to evaluate a select subsample of approximately 15-20 model/scenario combinations from the available 100 model/scenario combinations that represent the range of climate projections in the Bay Area for application to hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic model output variables will also be processed into decadal and 30-yr averages. The averages and all monthly maps for each variable (precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, potential and actual evapotranspiration, excess water, runoff and recharge, climatic water deficit, sublimation, snowfall, snowpack, snowmelt, and soil water storage), will be made available via web archives. The project will culminate in citable datasets available for ready use to apply ensemble climate and hydrologic forecasts at a fine spatial scale for the next century to any ongoing or planned project in California, facilitating the development of proposals and providing an additional value for cooperating by including assessments that incorporate the effects of climate change.
This project will consider several priority water-resource issues identified in Circular 1309 (USGS, 2007), including developing tools with which to predict ecosystem change on the basis of water availability, quantifying, forecasting, and securing freshwater for our future, and, in particular, assessing the consequences of climate change. This proposal will also support capabilities within the California Water Science Center (CAWSC) to develop hydrologic modeling tools relevant to the present science issues underlying the management of watersheds and hydrologic hazards in light of changes expected under future climate conditions. This project relates explicitly to the mission of WRD to provide scientific information that will be utilized by decision-makers to effectively manage the landscape and water resources for water-related natural hazards, recreational and ecological use, aquatic health, and environmental quality. In addition, the development of these basin-scale modeling tools describing climate scenarios are relevant to other federally managed lands in California for optimization of water resources.
The objective of this study is to provide downscaled ensemble projections of climate and hydrology for the next century for the state of California with specific application to the San Francisco Bay Area.
Climate change is impacting ecosystems in the 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay Area and there is a need for future climate projections and hydrologic response modeling for analyses to assist in adaptation for conservation and maintaining biodiversity.
The objective of this study is to provide downscaled ensemble projections of climate and hydrology for the next century for the state of California with specific application to the San Francisco Bay Area.
Science Plan: The U.S. Geological Survey California Water Science Center (USGS), in cooperation with Pepperwood Foundation, UC Berkeley, UC Davis, Climate Central and Creekside Science will develop and analyze climate and hydrology datasets for the 21st century for the Bay Area. The ensemble approach includes all AR4 and AR5 projections that are available via CMIP3 and CMIP5 websites that include precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature. These projections will be downscaled to 270-m for hydrologic model application using the Basin Characterization Model for 2000-2100. Previous versions of this model (Flint and Flint, 2012; Thorne and others, 2012) are being refined to include improved climate and properties data and additional model calibration. The results will receive processing into decadal and 30-yr averages for all climate variables. Results will be analyzed to evaluate a select subsample of approximately 15-20 model/scenario combinations from the available 100 model/scenario combinations that represent the range of climate projections in the Bay Area for application to hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic model output variables will also be processed into decadal and 30-yr averages. The averages and all monthly maps for each variable (precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, potential and actual evapotranspiration, excess water, runoff and recharge, climatic water deficit, sublimation, snowfall, snowpack, snowmelt, and soil water storage), will be made available via web archives. The project will culminate in citable datasets available for ready use to apply ensemble climate and hydrologic forecasts at a fine spatial scale for the next century to any ongoing or planned project in California, facilitating the development of proposals and providing an additional value for cooperating by including assessments that incorporate the effects of climate change.
This project will consider several priority water-resource issues identified in Circular 1309 (USGS, 2007), including developing tools with which to predict ecosystem change on the basis of water availability, quantifying, forecasting, and securing freshwater for our future, and, in particular, assessing the consequences of climate change. This proposal will also support capabilities within the California Water Science Center (CAWSC) to develop hydrologic modeling tools relevant to the present science issues underlying the management of watersheds and hydrologic hazards in light of changes expected under future climate conditions. This project relates explicitly to the mission of WRD to provide scientific information that will be utilized by decision-makers to effectively manage the landscape and water resources for water-related natural hazards, recreational and ecological use, aquatic health, and environmental quality. In addition, the development of these basin-scale modeling tools describing climate scenarios are relevant to other federally managed lands in California for optimization of water resources.