Reanalyzing and Predicting U.S. Water Use using Economic History and Forecast Data; an experiment in short-range national hydro-economic data synthesis

Water in the United States is used for myriad activities on a daily basis, such as for food (irrigation, aquaculture, livestock), energy (thermoelectric power or hydropower generation), and public water supply for domestic, commercial or industrial purposes. Yet, we lack an national accounting of how and where water is used on a temporal scale more frequent than every 5 years, and a spatial scale greater than county level. The “water data drought” in the U.S. and globally is one of the key barriers inhibiting our understanding of how the environment sustains society and how society alters the environment. The world’s best mesoscale water use dataset is the USGS Water-Use report (the so-called “water census”), which is conducted every five years at the county scale for eight major water-use categories. However, the Water-Use report’s five-year resolution limits it to the coverage of semi-decadal trends (as opposed to seasonal events), and its multi-year production lag prevents its use as a forecasting or short-range decision-making tool. Further, its coarse classification of water users limits its potential for integration with economic accounts and use in economic forecasting. This Working Group will develop relationships between demographic, economic, climate, hydrologic, and water use data for every county and watershed within the U.S. through the fusion of existing but disparate data and disciplinary approaches. Results will include statistical and modeling relationships between monthly or quarterly data,  which will include economic, climate, and water use data. Further, exploration into higher categorical industrial water use classifications, and the potential for economic-based water demand forecasts will be addressed. Products will include published manuscripts and datasets, specifically targeting higher categorical industrial water use classifications, an experimental model, and analysis of industrial demand response using short-range demand and climate forecasts. Datasets and models will be integrated into USGS Water Mission Area Program data portals as appropriate.

Credit: Travis Cole, USGS
The Indiana Harbor complex is the largest integrated steelmaking facility in North America and located in East Chicago, Indiana, just 20 miles southeast of Chicago.
Indiana Harbor currently operates three blast furnaces. The facility was established more than 100 years ago and currently employs more than 4,000 people. Indiana Harbor is a diverse facility capable of making a full range of flat products including advanced high strength steels, API pipe skelp, motor-laminations, automotive exposed, martinsitic grades and aluminized. Indiana Harbor is a leader in North American development of new automotive products, and is a primary supplier of coils to I/N Tek and I/N Kote.

Principal Investigator(s):
Ben Ruddell (Northern Arizona University)
Landon Marston (Kansas State University)
Molly Maupin (USGS Idaho Water Science Center)
Ken Bagstad (USGS Geosciences & Environmental Change Science Center)

Particpants:
Pierre Glynn (USGS)
Gabriel Senay (USGS)
David Blodgett (USGS)
Nancy Barber (USGS)
Dirk Van Duym (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
James Prairie (US Bureau of Reclamation)
Richard Rushforth (Northern Arizona University)
Ryan McManamay (Baylor University)
Dimitrios Stampoulis (Arizona State University)
Justin Huntington (Desert Research Institute)
Mazdak Arabi (Colorado State University)
Bryan Leonard (Arizona State University)
Vince Tidwell (Sandia National Laboratories)
Mohamad Hejazi (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)