The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Pacific Ocean Atolls
Providing basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense installations, and assessing the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll serves as our test case
Visit the research overview web site for more information.
The Problem
Many U.S. Pacific islands are atolls fringed with coral reefs and have maximum elevations of 3–5 meters, with mean elevations of 1–2 meters. Sea level in the western Pacific Ocean has been increasing at a rate 2–3 times the global average, resulting in almost 0.3 meters of net rise since 1990. The 2012 US National Climate Assessment provided global sea level rise scenarios that ranged from 0.2 to 2.0 meters by 2100. Regional scenarios are needed. A high surf event in December 2008 overwashed numerous atolls in Micronesia, ruining freshwater supplies and destroying agriculture on approximately 60% of the inhabited islands. Sea-level rise will exacerbate the hazards posed by climate change (storms, waves, temperatures, precipitation, etc.) to infrastructure, freshwater supplies, agriculture, and habitats for threatened and endangered species on U.S. and U.S.-affiliated atoll islands.
Project Objectives
- Provide basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave-induced overwash and inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense (DoD) installations.
- Assess the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
- Use Roi-Namur Island (Reagan Test Site–U.S. Army Kwajalein Atoll) on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (U.S. Associated Pacific Islands) as a test case based on historical information, sea-level rise predictions, and global climate model (GCM) output.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Coastal Climate Impacts
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability
Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding
Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change
The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines
Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?
Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands
Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands
Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Providing basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense installations, and assessing the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll serves as our test case
Visit the research overview web site for more information.
The Problem
Many U.S. Pacific islands are atolls fringed with coral reefs and have maximum elevations of 3–5 meters, with mean elevations of 1–2 meters. Sea level in the western Pacific Ocean has been increasing at a rate 2–3 times the global average, resulting in almost 0.3 meters of net rise since 1990. The 2012 US National Climate Assessment provided global sea level rise scenarios that ranged from 0.2 to 2.0 meters by 2100. Regional scenarios are needed. A high surf event in December 2008 overwashed numerous atolls in Micronesia, ruining freshwater supplies and destroying agriculture on approximately 60% of the inhabited islands. Sea-level rise will exacerbate the hazards posed by climate change (storms, waves, temperatures, precipitation, etc.) to infrastructure, freshwater supplies, agriculture, and habitats for threatened and endangered species on U.S. and U.S.-affiliated atoll islands.
Project Objectives
- Provide basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave-induced overwash and inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense (DoD) installations.
- Assess the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
- Use Roi-Namur Island (Reagan Test Site–U.S. Army Kwajalein Atoll) on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (U.S. Associated Pacific Islands) as a test case based on historical information, sea-level rise predictions, and global climate model (GCM) output.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Coastal Climate Impacts
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability
Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding
Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change
The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines
Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific Island seabirds?
Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands
Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands
Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models
Below are news stories associated with this project.