Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts
The viewer shows predictions of the timing and magnitude of water levels at the shoreline and potential impacts to coastal dunes.
Open the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Viewer.
The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project is working with the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to combine wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) with USGS-derived beach morphology to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels. The interagency operational model is available at select pilot sites and model forecast can be accessed in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast viewer. The viewer includes predictions of the timing and magnitude of water levels at the shoreline and potential impacts to coastal dunes.
The primary components of total water level elevation along the coast include tides, surge, and wave-induced runup. However, existing operational water level models do not account for wave-driven water levels. The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project is working with the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to combine wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) with USGS-derived beach morphology to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels.
A pilot study is on-going at Duck, North Carolina, with additional sites to follow. For each study area, tides and subtidal water levels are provided by the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operations Forecast Systems (ESTOFS) and wave properties (wave height and period) are being provided along the 20-meter isobath by the NWPS. These wave characteristics provide input for the empirical wave runup model developed by Stockdon and others (2006). Beach slopes and slope uncertainty, also required by the wave runup model, are provided from multiple USGS lidar surveys in the same area. The method for determining average beach slope for U. S. sandy coastlines, along with published datasets, is published in Doran and others (2015). The spatial and temporal uncertainty in total water level due to variability in beach slope and wave height and period is also predicted using the methodology described in Doran and others (2015). Existing and future pilot sites will be instrumented with video remote sensing equipment to provide observations of total water levels for comparison to predicted values. In addition, processes driving extreme water levels and sediment transport under storm conditions will be explored to improve predictions.
Explore our geonarrative to learn more about research and tools developed to forecast real-time coastal change:
![Real-time Forecasts of Coastal Change - USGS researchers develop tools to forecast coastal change hazards](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/half_width/public/media/images/real-time-forecasts.png?itok=VinRSyOs)
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Forecasting Coastal Change
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer
Total water level (TWL) at the shoreline is the combination of tides, surge, and wave runup. A forecast of TWL is an estimate of the elevation where the ocean will meet the coast and can provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding hazards.
![Zoomed-in view of a small section of the beach from Madeira Beach camera 2 shows water blurred by the time-averaging process](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c2.timex.jpg)
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
![Zoomed-in view of a small section of the beach from Madeira Beach camera 2 shows tourists walking along the beach](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c2.snap.jpg)
Most recent snapshot from Camera 2 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
Most recent snapshot from Camera 2 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
A current view of the most recent snapshot from a webcam located in Sand Key, Florida.
A current view of the most recent snapshot from a webcam located in Sand Key, Florida.
![](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c1.timex.jpg)
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
Most recent time-averaged image from Sand Key, Florida. The images are used to examine a range of coastal processes including shoreline position, the presence of an offshore sandbar, and the extent of wave runup on the beach. Camera hosted by Dan's Island Condo.
Most recent time-averaged image from Sand Key, Florida. The images are used to examine a range of coastal processes including shoreline position, the presence of an offshore sandbar, and the extent of wave runup on the beach. Camera hosted by Dan's Island Condo.
![](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c1.snap.jpg)
Most recent snapshot from Camera 1 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
Most recent snapshot from Camera 1 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
Below are publications associated with this project.
A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines
Coastal topography–Northeast Atlantic coast, post-hurricane Sandy, 2012
Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup
Real-Time Forecasts of Coastal Change
U.S. Geological Survey researchers develop tools to forecast coastal change hazards. This geonarrative features research and tools developed to forecast real-time coastal change.
Read news related to the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer.
Below are partners associated with this project.
The viewer shows predictions of the timing and magnitude of water levels at the shoreline and potential impacts to coastal dunes.
Open the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Viewer.
The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project is working with the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to combine wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) with USGS-derived beach morphology to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels. The interagency operational model is available at select pilot sites and model forecast can be accessed in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast viewer. The viewer includes predictions of the timing and magnitude of water levels at the shoreline and potential impacts to coastal dunes.
The primary components of total water level elevation along the coast include tides, surge, and wave-induced runup. However, existing operational water level models do not account for wave-driven water levels. The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project is working with the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to combine wave predictions from the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) with USGS-derived beach morphology to provide regional weather offices detailed forecasts of wave-induced water levels.
A pilot study is on-going at Duck, North Carolina, with additional sites to follow. For each study area, tides and subtidal water levels are provided by the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operations Forecast Systems (ESTOFS) and wave properties (wave height and period) are being provided along the 20-meter isobath by the NWPS. These wave characteristics provide input for the empirical wave runup model developed by Stockdon and others (2006). Beach slopes and slope uncertainty, also required by the wave runup model, are provided from multiple USGS lidar surveys in the same area. The method for determining average beach slope for U. S. sandy coastlines, along with published datasets, is published in Doran and others (2015). The spatial and temporal uncertainty in total water level due to variability in beach slope and wave height and period is also predicted using the methodology described in Doran and others (2015). Existing and future pilot sites will be instrumented with video remote sensing equipment to provide observations of total water levels for comparison to predicted values. In addition, processes driving extreme water levels and sediment transport under storm conditions will be explored to improve predictions.
Explore our geonarrative to learn more about research and tools developed to forecast real-time coastal change:
![Real-time Forecasts of Coastal Change - USGS researchers develop tools to forecast coastal change hazards](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/half_width/public/media/images/real-time-forecasts.png?itok=VinRSyOs)
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Forecasting Coastal Change
National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards
Video Remote Sensing of Coastal Processes
Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer
Total water level (TWL) at the shoreline is the combination of tides, surge, and wave runup. A forecast of TWL is an estimate of the elevation where the ocean will meet the coast and can provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding hazards.
![Zoomed-in view of a small section of the beach from Madeira Beach camera 2 shows water blurred by the time-averaging process](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c2.timex.jpg)
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
![Zoomed-in view of a small section of the beach from Madeira Beach camera 2 shows tourists walking along the beach](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c2.snap.jpg)
Most recent snapshot from Camera 2 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
Most recent snapshot from Camera 2 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
A current view of the most recent snapshot from a webcam located in Sand Key, Florida.
A current view of the most recent snapshot from a webcam located in Sand Key, Florida.
![](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c1.timex.jpg)
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
Time-averaged images, which represent the time-mean of all the images collected during a video, are used to identify areas where waves are breaking, which show up as bright white bands in the image.
Most recent time-averaged image from Sand Key, Florida. The images are used to examine a range of coastal processes including shoreline position, the presence of an offshore sandbar, and the extent of wave runup on the beach. Camera hosted by Dan's Island Condo.
Most recent time-averaged image from Sand Key, Florida. The images are used to examine a range of coastal processes including shoreline position, the presence of an offshore sandbar, and the extent of wave runup on the beach. Camera hosted by Dan's Island Condo.
![](https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/images/madeira_beach.c1.snap.jpg)
Most recent snapshot from Camera 1 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
Most recent snapshot from Camera 1 at Madeira Beach, Florida. Camera hosted by Shoreline Island Resort.
Below are publications associated with this project.
A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines
Coastal topography–Northeast Atlantic coast, post-hurricane Sandy, 2012
Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup
Real-Time Forecasts of Coastal Change
U.S. Geological Survey researchers develop tools to forecast coastal change hazards. This geonarrative features research and tools developed to forecast real-time coastal change.
Read news related to the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer.
Below are partners associated with this project.