Tsunami Evacuation Plans
One Size Does Not Fit All: A Case Study in Alameda, California
Our country faces a wide array of natural hazards that threaten its safety, security, economic well-being, and natural resources. To minimize future losses, communities need a clear understanding of how they are vulnerable to natural hazards and of strategies for increasing their resilience. Vulnerability and resilience are influenced by (1) how communities choose to use hazard-prone land, (2) pre-existing socioeconomic conditions, (3) likely future patterns of land change, and (4) current efforts to reduce and manage risks.
The objective of this project is to develop new ways of assessing and communicating community vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards. This work supports core elements of the USGS mission that focus on understanding land change and minimizing life loss and property damage from natural disasters. The project has completed work on all types of natural hazards, from sudden-onset extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano lahars) to chronic events (sea level rise, coastal erosion).
Throughout the various research efforts and assessments, we have developed or improved methods for understanding and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards. This project has produced techniques-related articles on the following topics:
Geographical analysis
We use geographic information system (GIS) tools to estimate variations in community exposure of populations, land uses, infrastructures, and economic activities to natural hazards in various States. Exposure assessments have been completed based on maximum hazard zones, scenario-based zones, and comparisons of multiple hazard scenarios. GIS-based statistical analysis is also used to identify variations in demographic sensitivity across a community to natural hazards. We have also applied GIS tools to identify areas in a community with high hazards and societal assets, to demonstrate how landcover data can be used to characterize regional exposure to hazards and to improve population maps.
Spatial modeling
We use GIS to model pedestrian evacuation out of hazard zones, based on landcover, elevation, hazard, and population data. Results help local officials understand where successful evacuations are possible and where vertical-evacuation refuges may be warranted to help save lives. We also have developed GIS methods for helping to site vertical-evacuation refuges, as well as look at past disasters to compare fatality patterns and evacuation potential. To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Stakeholder surveys
Community vulnerability to hazards cannot be completely understood using only GIS tools and socioeconomic data. Public perceptions and priorities related to hazards are also important elements. Therefore, we use community-based assessment workshops, community recovery forums, and surveys to better understand the human element in vulnerability.
Public engagement
An important part of this project has been training others in our methods so that they can carry out their own assessments. There have been several efforts of the years to share results and methods with emergency managers, local officials, the general public and students, such as “train-the-trainer” workshops related to tsunami preparedness, vulnerability assessment workshops for local emergency managers, and graduate short courses.
Below are pages summarizing natural hazards research conducted by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are multimedia items produced by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are journal arcticles and reports published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Land cover and land use change
HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones
Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis
Community exposure to potential climate-driven changes to coastal-inundation hazards for six communities in Essex County, Massachusetts
Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i
Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA
Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential
Below are web applications created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below is software created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team
Below are news stories about the Hazards Vulnerability Team's science.
Below are partners who work with the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Our country faces a wide array of natural hazards that threaten its safety, security, economic well-being, and natural resources. To minimize future losses, communities need a clear understanding of how they are vulnerable to natural hazards and of strategies for increasing their resilience. Vulnerability and resilience are influenced by (1) how communities choose to use hazard-prone land, (2) pre-existing socioeconomic conditions, (3) likely future patterns of land change, and (4) current efforts to reduce and manage risks.
The objective of this project is to develop new ways of assessing and communicating community vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards. This work supports core elements of the USGS mission that focus on understanding land change and minimizing life loss and property damage from natural disasters. The project has completed work on all types of natural hazards, from sudden-onset extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano lahars) to chronic events (sea level rise, coastal erosion).
Throughout the various research efforts and assessments, we have developed or improved methods for understanding and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards. This project has produced techniques-related articles on the following topics:
Geographical analysis
We use geographic information system (GIS) tools to estimate variations in community exposure of populations, land uses, infrastructures, and economic activities to natural hazards in various States. Exposure assessments have been completed based on maximum hazard zones, scenario-based zones, and comparisons of multiple hazard scenarios. GIS-based statistical analysis is also used to identify variations in demographic sensitivity across a community to natural hazards. We have also applied GIS tools to identify areas in a community with high hazards and societal assets, to demonstrate how landcover data can be used to characterize regional exposure to hazards and to improve population maps.
Spatial modeling
We use GIS to model pedestrian evacuation out of hazard zones, based on landcover, elevation, hazard, and population data. Results help local officials understand where successful evacuations are possible and where vertical-evacuation refuges may be warranted to help save lives. We also have developed GIS methods for helping to site vertical-evacuation refuges, as well as look at past disasters to compare fatality patterns and evacuation potential. To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Stakeholder surveys
Community vulnerability to hazards cannot be completely understood using only GIS tools and socioeconomic data. Public perceptions and priorities related to hazards are also important elements. Therefore, we use community-based assessment workshops, community recovery forums, and surveys to better understand the human element in vulnerability.
Public engagement
An important part of this project has been training others in our methods so that they can carry out their own assessments. There have been several efforts of the years to share results and methods with emergency managers, local officials, the general public and students, such as “train-the-trainer” workshops related to tsunami preparedness, vulnerability assessment workshops for local emergency managers, and graduate short courses.
Below are pages summarizing natural hazards research conducted by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are multimedia items produced by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are journal arcticles and reports published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Land cover and land use change
HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones
Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis
Community exposure to potential climate-driven changes to coastal-inundation hazards for six communities in Essex County, Massachusetts
Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i
Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA
Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential
Below are web applications created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below is software created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team
Below are news stories about the Hazards Vulnerability Team's science.
Below are partners who work with the Hazards Vulnerability Team.