Integrating land use land cover change into future scenarios of electricity systems - Data Release

Modeled projections for deep decarbonization require large amounts of solar energy, which may compete with other land uses such as agriculture, urbanization, and conservation of natural lands. Existing capacity expansion models do not integrate land use land cover change (LULC) dynamics into projections. We explored the interaction between projected LULC and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment by integrating projections of LULC with a model that can project future deployment of solar PV with high spatial resolution for the conterminous United States. We used four scenarios of LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 and two electricity grid scenarios to model future PV deployment and compare those results against a baseline that held 2010 land cover constant through 2050. Though solar PV’s overall technical potential was minimally impacted by LULC scenarios, deployed PV varied by -16.5 to 11.6% in 2050 from the baseline scenario. Land requirements for projected PV were similar to other studies, while measures of PV impacts on natural systems depended on the underlying land change dynamics occurring in a scenario. The solar PV deployed through 2050 resulted in 1.1%–2.4% of croplands and 0.3%–0.7% of natural lands being converted to PV. However, the deepest understanding of PV impacts and interactions with land cover emerge when the complete net gains and losses from all land cover change dynamics, including PV, are integrated. For example, one of the four LULC projections allows for large solar development and a net gain in natural lands, even though PV drives a larger percentage of natural land conversion. This paper represents an initial step in integrating land cover change dynamics with energy expansion models, suggesting it may be possible to capture bidirectional relationships between energy and other processes that require land.