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Publications

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An evaluation of debris-flow runout model accuracy and complexity in Montecito, CA: Towards a framework for regional inundation-hazard forecasting

Numerous debris-flow inundation models have been applied retroactively to noteworthy events around the world. While such studies can be useful in identifying controlling factors, calibrating model parameters, and assessing future hazards in specific study areas, model parameters tailored to individual events can be difficult to apply regionally. The advancement of debris-flow modeling applications
Authors
Erin Bessette-Kirton, Jason W. Kean, Jeffrey A. Coe, Francis K. Rengers, Dennis M. Staley

Real-time monitoring of debris-flow velocity and mass deformation from field experiments with high sample rate lidar and video

Debris flows evolve in both time and space in complex ways, commonly starting as coherent failures but then quickly developing structures such as roll waves and surges. This process is readily observed, but difficult to study or quantify because of the speed at which it occurs. Many methods for studying debris flows consist of point measurements (e.g., of flow height or basal stresses), which are
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Thomas Rapstine, Kate E. Allstadt, Michael Olsen, Michael Bunn, Richard M. Iverson, Jason W. Kean, Ben Leshchinsky, Matthew Logan, Mahyar Sharifi-Mood, Maciej Obryk, Joel B. Smith

Looking through the window of disturbance at post-wildfire debris-flow hazards

The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote increases in runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Over a period of several years, referred to as the window of disturbance, the landscap
Authors
Luke McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Hui Tang, Ann Youberg

Topographic change detection at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA, using Airborne LiDAR and UAS-based Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry

The Chalk Cliffs debris-flow site is a small headwater catchment incised into highly fractured and hydrothermally altered quartz monzonite in a semi-arid climate. Over half of the extremely steep basin is exposed bedrock. Debris flows occur multiple times per year in response to rainstorm events, typically during the summer monsoon season. The frequency of debris flows, and the uniformity of the u
Authors
Katherine R Barnhart, Francis K. Rengers, Ghent Jessica N, Gregory E. Tucker, Jeffrey A. Coe, Jason W. Kean, Joel B. Smith, Dennis M. Staley, William Kleiber, Ashton M Wiens

Post-fire rockfall and debris-flow hazard zonation in the Eagle Creek Fire burn area, Columbia River Gorge, Oregon: a tool for emergency managers and first responders

The Eagle Creek Fire engulfed 48,832 acres (196 km2) within the Columbia River Gorge, Oregon beginning September 2nd and was 100% contained by November 30th, 2017. The Columbia River Gorge area is steep and heavily forested characterized by cliffs and flanking talus slopes, receiving > 100 inches (> 254 cm) of precipitation annually. The Columbia River Gorge is a critical lifeline for Oregon and W
Authors
Nancy C. Calhoun, William J. Burns, S.H. Hayduk, Dennis M. Staley, Jason W. Kean

Taking the pulse of debris flows: Extracting debris-flow dynamics from good vibrations in southern California and central Colorado

The destructive nature of debris flows makes it difficult to quantify flow dynamics with direct instrumentation. For this reason, seismic sensors placed safely away from the flow path are often used to identify the timing and speed of debris flows. While seismic sensors have proven to be a valuable tool for event detection and early warning, their potential for identifying other aspects of debris
Authors
A. Michel, Jason W. Kean, Joel B. Smith, Kate E. Allstadt, Jeffrey A. Coe

Inundation, flow dynamics, and damage in the 9 January 2018 Montecito Debris-Flow Event, California, USA: Opportunities and challenges for post-wildfire risk assessment

Shortly before the beginning of the winter rainy season, one of the largest fires in California history (Thomas Fire) substantially increased the susceptibility of steep slopes in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties to debris flows. On January 9, 2018, before the fire was fully contained, an intense burst of rain fell on the portion of the burn area above Montecito, CA. The rainfall and associated
Authors
Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Jeremy T. Lancaster, Francis K. Rengers, Brian J. Swanson, Jeffrey A. Coe, Janis Hernandez, Aaron Sigman, Kate E. Allstadt, Donald N. Lindsay

A physical model of the high-frequency seismic signal generated by debris flows

We propose a physical model for the high‐frequency (>1 Hz) spectral distribution of seismic power generated by debris flows. The modeled debris flow is assumed to have four regions where the impact rate and impulses are controlled by different mechanisms: the flow body, a coarser‐grained snout, a snout lip where particles fall from the snout on the bed, and a dilute front composed of saltating par
Authors
Maxime Farin, Victor C. Tsai, Michael P. Lamb, Kate E. Allstadt

Constraining parameter uncertainty in modeling debris-flow initiation during the September 2013 Colorado Front Range storm

The occurrence of debris flows during the September 2013 northern Colorado floods took the emergency management community by surprise. The September 2013 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range initiated from shallow landslides in colluvium. Most occurred on south- and east-facing slopes on the walls of steep canyons in crystalline rocks and on sedimentary hogbacks. Previous studies showed that m
Authors
Rex L. Baum, C.R. Scheevel, Eric S. Jones

Bayesian analysis of the impact of rainfall data product on simulated slope failure for North Carolina locations

In the past decades, many different approaches have been developed in the literature to quantify the load-carrying capacity and geotechnical stability (or the Factor of Safety, F_s) of variably saturated hillslopes. Much of this work has focused on a deterministic characterization of hillslope stability. Yet, simulated F_s values are subject to considerable uncertainty due to our inability to char
Authors
Soni Yatheendradas, Dalia Kirschbaum, Grey Nearing, Jasper A. Vrugt, Rex L. Baum, Rick Wooten, Ning Lu, Jonathan W. Godt

Earthquake-induced chains of geologic hazards: Patterns, mechanisms, and impacts

Large earthquakes initiate chains of surface processes that last much longer than the brief moments of strong shaking. Most moderate- and large-magnitude earthquakes trigger landslides, ranging from small failures in the soil cover to massive, devastating rock avalanches. Some landslides dam rivers and impound lakes, which can collapse days to centuries later, and flood mountain valleys for hundre
Authors
Xuanmei Fan, Gianvito Scaringi, Oliver Korup, A. Joshua West, Cees J. van Westen, Hakan Tanyas, Niels Hovius, Tristram C Hales, Randall W. Jibson, Kate E. Allstadt, Limin Zhang, Stephen G. Evans, Chong Xu, Gen Li, Xiangjun Pei, Qiang Xu, Runqiu Huang

Estimation of ground motion variability in the CEUS using simulations

We estimate earthquake ground-motion variability in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) by varying the model parameters of a deterministic physics-based and a stochastic site-based simulation method. Utilizing a moderate-magnitude database of recordings, we simulate ground motions for larger-magnitude scenarios M6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0. For the physics-based method, we vary the faulting mechan
Authors
Xiaodan Sun, Sanaz Rezaeian, Brandon Clayton, Stephen H. Hartzell