Publications
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Stronger peak ground motion, beyond the threshold to initiate a response, does not lead to larger stream discharge responses to earthquakes
The impressive number of stream gauges in Chile, combined with a suite of past and recent large earthquakes, makes Chile a unique natural laboratory to study several streams that recorded responses to multiple seismic events. We document changes in discharge in eight streams in Chile following two or more large earthquakes. In all cases, discharge increases. Changes in discharge occur for peak gro
Authors
Christian H. Mohr, Michael Manga, David J. Wald
The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about earthquake ground
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Sandra P. Chang, C.B Crouse, Arthur Frankel, Robert Graves, H Puangnak, Nicolas Luco, Christine A. Goulet, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Scott Callaghan, T.H. Jordan, Kevin R. Milner
Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option
In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some background l
Authors
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner
An updated method for estimating landslide‐event magnitude
Summary statistics derived from the frequency–area distribution (FAD) of inventories of triggered landslides allows for direct comparison of landslides triggered by one event (e.g. earthquake, rainstorm) with another. Such comparisons are vital to understand links between the landslide‐event and the environmental characteristics of the area affected. This could lead to methods for rapid estimation
Authors
Hakan Tanyas, Kate E. Allstadt, Cees J. van Weston
Combining conflicting Bayesian models to develop paleoseismic records—An example from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah
Bayesian statistical analyses of paleoseismic data result in the probabilistic determination of earthquake times using geochronological data evaluated in the context of a stratigraphic model. However, a fundamental problem in paleoseismology is how to use the Bayesian approach to model sparse and/or conflicting geochronological datasets, such as those derived from sites exhibiting episodic sedimen
Authors
Christopher DuRoss, Scott E. K. Bennett, Richard W. Briggs, Stephen Personius, Ryan D. Gold, Nadine G. Reitman, Adam I. Hiscock, Shannon A. Mahan
Using stereo satellite imagery to account for ablation, entrainment, and compaction in volume calculations for rock avalanches on Glaciers: Application to the 2016 Lamplugh Rock Avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
The use of preevent and postevent digital elevation models (DEMs) to estimate the volume of rock avalanches on glaciers is complicated by ablation of ice before and after the rock avalanche, scour of material during rock avalanche emplacement, and postevent ablation and compaction of the rock avalanche deposit. We present a model to account for these processes in volume estimates of rock avalanche
Authors
Erin Bessette-Kirton, Jeffrey A. Coe, Wendy Zhou
ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations
In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The proba
Authors
Carlo Cauzzi, Donat Fah, David J. Wald, John Clinton, Stephane Losey, Stefan Wiemer
Landslides triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand
The 14 November 2016 MwMw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake generated more than 10,000 landslides over a total area of about 10,000 km210,000 km2, with the majority concentrated in a smaller area of about 3600 km23600 km2. The largest landslide triggered by the earthquake had an approximate volume of 20(±2) M m320(±2) M m3, with a runout distance of about 2.7 km, forming a dam on the Hapuku River. In
Authors
C. Massey, D. Townsend, Ellen M. Rathje, Kate E. Allstadt, B. Lukovic, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Brendon A. Bradley, J. Wartman, Randall W. Jibson, D. N. Petley, Nick Horspool, I. Hamling, J. Carey, S. Cox, John Davidson, S. Dellow, Jonathan W. Godt, Christopher Holden, Katherine D. Jones, Anna E. Kaiser, M. Little, B. Lyndsell, S. McColl, R. Morgenstern, Francis K. Rengers, D. Rhoades, B. Rosser, D. Strong, C. Singeisen, M. Villeneuve
Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we con
Authors
Yuehua Zeng
Laboratory tests of three Z‐Land Fairfield Nodal 5‐Hz, three‐component sensors
We conduct a number of laboratory tests at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory to verify the self‐noise and fidelity in which 3 three‐component Fairfield Nodal Z‐Land, Generation 2, 5‐Hz sensors are able to record seismic signals. In addition to the incoherent self‐noise of the sensors, we estimate the sensitivity of the units in digital volts/m/s, the damping, and the free period. These thre
Authors
Adam T. Ringler, Robert E. Anthony, M.S Karplus, Austin Holland, David C. Wilson
Ensemble smoothed seismicity models for the new Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map
We develop a long‐term (a few decades or longer) earthquake rate forecast for Italy based on smoothed seismicity for incorporation in the 2017–2018 Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps (IPSHM). Because the earthquake rate models from previous IPSHM were computed using source zones that were drawn around seismicity and tectonic provinces, the present model will be the first introduction of the
Authors
Aybige Akinci, Morgan P. Moschetti, Matteo Taroni
On the feasibility of real-time mapping of the geoelectric field across North America
A review is given of the present feasibility for accurately mapping geoelectric fields across North America in near-realtime by modeling geomagnetic monitoring and magnetotelluric survey data. Should this capability be successfully developed, it could inform utility companies of magnetic-storm interference on electric-power-grid systems. That real-time mapping of geoelectric fields is a challenge
Authors
Jeffrey J. Love, E. Joshua Rigler, Anna Kelbert, Carol A. Finn, Paul A. Bedrosian, Christopher C. Balch