Publications

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to −Dst storm time maxima for years 1957–2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are

A remarkable increase in seismic activity in Oklahoma since 2009 has been shown to correlate closely with enhanced hydrocarbon extraction and associated wastewater disposal; 99% of this recent Oklahoma earthquake activity has occurred within 15 km of a call II injection well (Ellsworth, 2013). In response to this increase in seismic activity, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnered with the

I present a long-term earthquake rate model for the central and eastern United States from adaptive smoothed seismicity. By employing pseudoprospective likelihood testing (L-test), I examined the effects of fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and the effects of catalog duration and composition on the ability of the models to forecast the spatial distribution of recent earthquakes. To stabilize th

In a seismically active region, structures may be subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for repair or retrofit between the events. This study quantifies the aftershock vulnerability of four modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings in California by conducting incremental dynamic analysis of nonlinear MDOF analyti

This pilot study explores the potential of using low-resolution (0.2 points/m2) airborne laser scanning (ALS)-derived elevation data to model stream rating curves. Rating curves, which allow the functional translation of stream water depth into discharge, making them integral to water resource monitoring efforts, were modeled using a physics-based approach that captures basic geometric measurement

What controls the architecture of drainage networks is a fundamental question in geomorphology. Recent work has elucidated the mechanisms of drainage network development in steadily uplifting landscapes, but the controls on drainage-network morphology in transient landscapes are relatively unknown. In this paper we exploit natural experiments in drainage network development in incised Plio-Quatern

Watersheds recently burned by wildfires can have an increased susceptibility to debris flow, although little is known about how long this susceptibility persists, and how it changes over time. We here use a compilation of 75 debris-flow response and fire-ignition dates, vegetation and bedrock class, rainfall regime, and initiation process from throughout the western U.S. to address these issues. T

No abstract available.

No abstract available.

Despite the role of the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust as the source of some of the largest earthquakes and tsunamis, the history of its pre–twentieth century tsunamis is largely unknown west of the rupture zone of the great (magnitude, M 9.2) 1964 earthquake. Stratigraphy in core transects at two boggy lowland sites on Chirikof Island’s southwest coast preserves tsunami deposits dating from the postg

We present an objectively defined rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold for the initiation of flash floods and debris flows for basins recently burned in the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. Our results are based on 453 rainfall records which include 8 instances of hazardous flooding and debris flow from 10 July 2012 to 14 August 2013. We objectively defined the t

Individual great earthquakes are posited to release the elastic strain energy that has accumulated over centuries by the gradual movement of tectonic plates1, 2. However, knowledge of plate deformation during a complete seismic cycle—two successive great earthquakes and the intervening interseismic period—remains incomplete3. A complete seismic cycle began in south-central Chile in 1835 with an ea