Publications
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Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms
Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian
Authors
Jeffrey J. Love
A low-cost method to measure the timing of post-fire flash floods and debris flows relative to rainfall
Data on the specific timing of post-fire flash floods and debris flows are very limited. We describe a method to measure the response times of small burned watersheds to rainfall using a low-cost pressure transducer, which can be installed quickly after a fire. Although the pressure transducer is not designed for sustained sampling at the fast rates ({less than or equal to}2 sec) used at more adva
Authors
Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Robert J. Leeper, Kevin Michael Schmidt, Joseph E. Gartner
Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field
Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in gene
Authors
Thessa Tormann, Stefan Wiemer, Jeanne L. Hardebeck
New "Risk-Targeted" Seismic Maps Introduced into Building Codes
Throughout most municipalities of the United States, structural engineers design new buildings using the U.S.-focused International Building Code (IBC). Updated editions of the IBC are published every 3 years. The latest edition (2012) contains new "risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake" (MCER) ground motion maps, which are enabling engineers to incorporate a more consistent and better defin
Authors
Nicholas Luco, B. Garrett, J. Hayes
The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and tsunami excitation
The moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck offshore the Mentawai islands in western Indonesia on 25 October 2010 created a locally large tsunami that caused more than 400 human causalities. We identify this earthquake as a rare slow‐source tsunami earthquake based on: 1) disproportionately large tsunami waves; 2) excessive rupture duration near 125 s; 3) predominantly shallow, near‐trench sl
Authors
Andrew V. Newman, Gavin P. Hayes, Yong Wei, Jaime Convers
Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2010 eastern margin of the Australia plate
The eastern margin of the Australia plate is one of the most seismically active areas of the world due to high rates of convergence between the Australia and Pacific plates. In the region of New Zealand, the 3,000 km long Australia-Pacific plate boundary extends from south of Macquarie Island to the southern Kermadec Island chain. It includes an oceanic transform (the Macquarie Ridge), two opposit
Authors
Harley M. Benz, Matthew Herman, Arthur C. Tarr, Gavin P. Hayes, Kevin P. Furlong, Antonio H. Villaseñor, Richard L. Dart, Susan Rhea
Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2010 New Guinea and vicinity
There have been 22 M7.5+ earthquakes recorded in the New Guinea region since 1900. The dominant earthquake mechanisms are thrust and strike slip, associated with the arc-continent collision and the relative motions between numerous local microplates. The largest earthquake in the region was a M8.2 shallow thrust fault event in the northern Papua province of Indonesia that killed 166 people in 1996
Authors
Harley M. Benz, Matthew Herman, Arthur C. Tarr, Gavin P. Hayes, Kevin P. Furlong, Antonio H. Villaseñor, Richard L. Dart, Susan Rhea
Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2010 Australia plate and vicinity
This map shows details of the Australia plate and vicinity not presented in Tarr and others (2010). The boundary of the Australia plate includes all fundamental plate boundary components: mid-ocean ridges, subduction zones, arc-continent collisions, and large-offset transform faults. Along the southern edge of the plate the mid-ocean ridge separates the Australia and Antarctica plates and its beha
Authors
Harley M. Benz, Matthew Herman, Arthur C. Tarr, Gavin P. Hayes, Kevin P. Furlong, Antonio H. Villaseñor, Richard L. Dart, Susan Rhea
Evaluation of landslide monitoring in the Polish Carpathians
In response to the June 15, 2010 request from the Polish Geological Institute (PGI) to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for assistance and advice regarding real-time landslide monitoring, landslide specialists from the USGS Landslide Hazard Program visited PGI headquarters and field sites in September 2010. During our visit we became familiar with characteristics of landslides in the Polish Carpa
Authors
Brian D. Collins, Rex L. Baum, Teresa Mrozek, Piotr Nescieruk, Zbigniew Perski, Wojciech Raczkowski, Marek Graniczny
Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry
We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a do
Authors
K. Marsula, E. Tanskanen, J.J. Love
Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion
Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for ch
Authors
Stephen H. Hartzell, Arthur Frankel, Pengcheng Liu, Yuehua Zeng, Shariftur Rahman
Some possible causes of and corrections for STS-1 response changes in the Global Seismographic Network
The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) (Figure 1) plays a key role in providing seismic data for global earthquake monitoring (e.g., Benz et al. 2005), earthquake science (e.g., Tsai et al. 2005), and studies of Earth structure (e.g., Dalton et al. 2008). One of the key GSN design goals is to "provide high fidelity digital recordings of all teleseismic ground motions (adequate to resolve at or nea
Authors
C. R. Hutt, A. T. Ringler