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Publications

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Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling

Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulation
Authors
Jason T. Sherba, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Adam W. Davis, Owen P. Parker

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a
Authors
Tamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jason T. Sherba, Dick Cameron

Aftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: Implications for response and recovery in the built environment

On 4 September 2010, a Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in Canterbury, New Zealand. Following the initial earthquake, an aftershock sequence was initiated, with the most significant aftershock being a Mw6.3 earthquake occurring on 22 February 2011. This aftershock caused severe damage to the city of Christchurch and building failures that killed 185 people. During the aftershock sequence it became eviden
Authors
Julia Becker, Anne Wein, Sally Potter, Emma Doyle, Jamie L. Ratliff

Hydrologic response of streams restored with check dams in the Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona

In this study, hydrological processes are evaluated to determine impacts of stream restoration in the West Turkey Creek, Chiricahua Mountains, southeast Arizona, during a summer-monsoon season (June–October of 2013). A paired-watershed approach was used to analyze the effectiveness of check dams to mitigate high flows and impact long-term maintenance of hydrologic function. One watershed had been
Authors
Laura M. Norman, Fletcher C. Brinkerhoff, Evan Gwilliam, D. Phillip Guertin, James B. Callegary, David C. Goodrich, Pamela L. Nagler, Floyd Gray

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of
Authors
Nicole E. Heller, Jason R. Kreitler, David Ackerly, Stuart Weiss, Amanda Recinos, Ryan Branciforte, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Elisabeth Micheli

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem serv
Authors
Kristin B. Byrd, Lorraine E. Flint, Pelayo Alvarez, Frank Casey, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Christopher E. Soulard, Alan L. Flint, Terry L. Sohl

Economic consequence analysis of the Arkstorm scenario

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resili
Authors
Ian Sue Wing, Adam Rose, Anne M. Wein

Vegetation burn severity mapping using Landsat-8 and WorldView-2

We used remotely sensed data from the Landsat-8 and WorldView-2 satellites to estimate vegetation burn severity of the Creek Fire on the San Carlos Apache Reservation, where wildfire occurrences affect the Tribe's crucial livestock and logging industries. Accurate pre- and post-fire canopy maps at high (0.5-meter) resolution were created from World- View-2 data to generate canopy loss maps, and mu
Authors
Zhuoting Wu, Barry R. Middleton, Robert Hetzler, John M. Vogel, Dennis G. Dye

Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in stream
Authors
Rewati Niraula, Thomas Meixner, Laura M. Norman

Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perenn
Authors
Anne Wein, David Mitchell, Jeff Peters, John Rowden, Johnny Tran, Alessandra Corsi, Laura B. Dinitz

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no huma
Authors
Dominique Bachelet, Ken Ferschweiler, Timothy J. Sheehan, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu

GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses

Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) changes the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLC on ecosystem dynamics during hot, dry Mediterranean climate summers. FLCC indices were generated from 26,000 hourly night and day FLCC maps derived from Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite (GOES) data for June, July, August
Authors
Alicia Torregrosa, Cindy Combs, Jeff Peters