Accuracy Assessment
Accuracy Assessment
![Reliability diagrams of the WFPI model](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/full_width/public/thumbnails/image/WFPI-Results.png?itok=PIl-pryC)
Reliability diagrams of the WFPI model. (Left panel) Historic observed yearly fractions of 500+ acre fires in each of the grouped WFPI levels. (Right panel) historic observed yearly fraction of existing one-acre fires spreading to 500+ acres in each of the grouped WFPI levels.
![Predicted Probability (per million) based on WFPI and historic averages](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/full_width/public/media/images/Reliability-diagram-for-the-WLFP-model-predicted-probability-based-on-wfpi-and-historic-averages.png?itok=-XRGtKoK)
Reliability diagram for the WLFP model. On average the risk of a large fire event was observed to be ~7 times greater when the predicted risk was extreme (risk category red; predicted class >7) than when the predicted risk was moderate (risk category turquoise; predicted class 1-2). Between year variability is demonstrated by the length of the boxes and the extended whiskers. The horizontal line, at ~1 per million, is the overall observed historic average.
![Reliability diagram for the WFSP model](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/full_width/public/media/images/Reliability-diagram-for-the-WFSP-model-predicted-probability-spread-based-on-wfpi-and-historic-averages.png?itok=Db0NMB_P)
Reliability diagram for the WFSP model. On average the risk of spread was observed to be ~10 times greater when the predicted risk was extreme (risk category red; predicted class >=30) than when the predicted risk was moderate (risk category turquoise; predicted class 2-5). Between year variability is demonstrated by the length of the boxes and the extended whiskers. The horizontal line, at ~3%, is the overall observed historic average.