Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division

The Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division (IMPD) strives to better understand and capture in models and data the structure and functioning of earth systems in order to advance water prediction and assessment capabilities for the Nation, so it is better prepared to tackle critical water challenges that rely on these tools to make better decisions. IMPD is one of five divisions within the Water Resources Mission Area’s Office of the Chief Operating Officer. 

The operations, programs, and activities of the IMPD are performed by four branches: 

The Geo-Intelligence Branch provides the USGS Water Resources Mission Area and Water Science Centers with advanced geospatial expertise and robust technology for GIS analysis, modeling, and data/model content management. This Branch: 

• Develops reproducible, efficient workflows for data preparation, model execution, and model evaluations. 
• Supports awareness of and access to critical datasets and reference model applications. 

• Takes a holistic, integrative approach to a capacity for enterprise data development, management, and governance. 

The Earth Systems Modeling Branch develops and applies integrated modeling systems that bring together models, data, and research to examine water availability (quantity, quality, and use) and sustainable water management under changing climate, land use, water use, and other socioeconomic factors. This Branch: 

• Uses evidence-based modeling approaches to improve process representation, systems understanding, and the design of monitoring networks. 
• Integrates predictive, physical, and stochastic modeling. 
• Applies domain knowledge for modeling water budget terms, water quality, groundwater-surface water interaction, hydroclimate, coastal coupling, and human systems.  

The Analysis and Prediction Branch develops, tests, and applies data-driven methods (statistical models, machine learning, data assimilation, and hybrids) to improve predictions, descriptions, and understanding of hydrologic conditions, extremes, and change. This Branch: 

• Characterizes spatiotemporal patterns, probability distributions, and extremes in water quantity and quality. 
• Predicts for monitored and unmonitored locations, past and future conditions, and scenarios, assessing uncertainty and trustworthiness. 
• Assimilates and calibrates to diverse data to infer properties and states of natural and human-altered waters and watersheds.  
• Codesigns models and monitoring networks to synergistically meet our Nation’s water modeling needs.  

The Model Support and Coordination Branch conducts research, refractors, develops, and maintains earth system modeling software systems for the USGS using modern, extensible, interoperable methods and techniques. This Branch: 

• Establishes and implements software standards and best practices. 
• Develops and tests approaches to integrate models. 
• Develops and maintains enterprise model software. 
• Provides model documentation, distribution, and education. 
• Develops governance system for model software management. 

Want to learn more about the Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division’s activities? Check out the links below for examples of our current work.