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Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 r
Authors
Katriona Shea, Rebecca K. Borchering, William J M Probert, Emily Howerton, Tiffany L. Bogich, Shou-Li Li, Willem G. van Panhuis, Cecile Viboud, Ricardo Aguás, Artur A. Belov, Sanjana H. Bhargava, Sean M. Cavany, Joshua C. Chang, Cynthia Chen, Jinghui Chen, Shi Chen, YangQuan Chen, Lauren M. Childs, Carson C. Chow, Isabel Crooker, Sara Y. Del Valle, Guido España, Geoffrey Fairchild, Richard C. Gerkin, Timothy C. Germann, Quanquan Gu, Xiangyang Guan, Linhong Guo, Gregory R. Hart, Thomas J. Hladish, Nathaniel Hupert, Daniel Janies, Cliff C. Kerr, Daniel J. Klein, Eili Y. Klein, Gary Lin, Carrie Manore, Lauren A. Meyers, John E. Mittler, Kunpeng Mu, Rafael C. Nunez, Rachel J. Oidtman, Remy Pasco, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Rajib Paul, Carl A. B. Pearson, Dianela R. Perdomo, T. Alex Perkins, Kelly Pierce, Alexander N. Pillai, Rosalyn C. Rael, Katherine Rosenfeld, Chrysm W. Ross, Julie A. Spencer, Arlin B. Stoltzfus, Kok B. Toh, Shashaank Vattikuti, Alessandro Vespignani, Lingxiao Wang, Lisa J. White, X. Pan, Yupeng Yang, Osman N. Yogurtcu, Weitong Zhang, Yanting Zhao, Difan Zou, Matthew J. Ferrari, David Pannell, Michael J. Tildesley, J. Seiferth, Elyse Johnson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael A Johansson, Rachel B. Slayton, John Levander, Jeff Stazer, J. Kerr, Michael C. Runge
Inland water greenhouse gas budgets for RECCAP2: 1. State-of-the-art of global scale assessments
Inland waters are important sources of the greenhouse gasses (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. In the framework of the 2nd phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2) initiative, we review the state of the art in estimating inland water GHG budgets at global scale, which has substantially advanced since the first phase
Authors
Ronny Lauerwald, George H. Allen, Bridget Deemer, Shaoda Liu, Taylor Maavara, Peter Raymond, Lewis Alcott, David Bastviken, Adam Hastie, Meredith A. Holgerson, Matthew S. Johnson, Bernhard Lehner, Peirong Lin, Alessandra Marzadri, Lishan Ran, Hanqin Tian, Xiao Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Pierre Regnier
Groundwater prospecting using a multi-technique framework in the lower Casas Grandes Basin, Chihuahua, México
Groundwater is a strategic resource for economic development, social justice, environmental sustainability, and water governance. The lower Casas Grandes River Basin, located in the state of Chihuahua, México, is in a semi-arid region with increasing groundwater demand and regional challenges such as drought and depletion of aquifers. Even though there is official information about the availabilit
Authors
Alfredo Granados Olivas, Ezequiel Rascon-Mendoza, Francisco J. Gómez-Domínguez, Carlo I. Romero-Gameros, Andrew J. Robertson, Luis C. Bravo-Peña, Ali Mirchi, Ana C. Garcia-Vazquez, Alexander Fernald, John W. Hawley, Luis Alfonso Gandara-Ruiz, Luis C. Alatorre-Cejudo, Maryam Samimi, Felipe A. Vazquez-Galvez, Adan Pinales-Munguia, Oscar F. Ibañez-Hernandez, Josiah M. Heyman, Alex Mayer, William L. Hargrove
Near-field receiving-water monitoring of trace metals and a benthic community near the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant in south San Francisco Bay, California—2020
Trace-metal concentrations in sediment and in the clam Limecola petalum (World Register of Marine Species, 2020; formerly reported as Macoma balthica and M. petalum), clam reproductive activity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were investigated in a mudflat 1 kilometer (km) south of the discharge of the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (PARWQCP) in south San Francis
Authors
Daniel J. Cain, Marie Noële Croteau, Janet K. Thompson, Francis Parchaso, A. Robin Stewart, Emily L. Zierdt Smith, Kelly H. Shrader, Le H. Kieu, Samuel N. Luoma
Distribution and abundance of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus) on the upper San Luis Rey River, San Diego County, California—2022 data summary
Executive SummaryWe surveyed for Southwestern Willow Flycatchers (Empidonax traillii extimus; flycatcher) along the upper San Luis Rey River near Lake Henshaw in Santa Ysabel, California, in 2022. Surveys were completed at four locations: three downstream from Lake Henshaw, where surveys occurred from 2015 to 2021 (Rey River Ranch [RRR], Cleveland National Forest [CNF], Vista Irrigation District [
Authors
Scarlett L. Howell, Barbara E. Kus
Ambrosia beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) can directly transmit the fungal pathogens responsible for Rapid ʻŌhiʻa Death
The ecologically and culturally vital tree species, ʻōhiʻa lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha), is threatened by the fungal pathogens Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia, the causal agents of the disease complex called Rapid ʻŌhiʻa Death (ROD). Four invasive ambrosia beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) species in the Xyleborini tribe colonize ROD Ceratocystis-infested ‘ōhiʻa and
Authors
Kylle Roy, Kelly Jaenecke, Ellen Dunkle, Dan Mikros, Robert W. Peck
A novel assembly pipeline and functional annotations for targeted sequencing: A case study on the globally threatened Margaritiferidae (Bivalvia: Unionida)
The proliferation of genomic sequencing approaches has significantly impacted the field of phylogenetics. Target capture approaches provide a cost-effective, fast and easily applied strategy for phylogenetic inference of non-model organisms. However, several existing target capture processing pipelines are incapable of incorporating whole genome sequencing (WGS). Here, we develop a new pipeline fo
Authors
André Gomes-dos-Santos, Elsa Froufe, John M. Pfeiffer, Nathan Johnson, Chase H. Smith, André M. Machado, L. Filipe C. Castro, Van Tu Do, Akimasa Hattori, Nicole Garrison, Nathan V. Whelan, Ivan N. Bolotov, Ilya V. Vikhrev, Alexander V. Kondakov, Mohamed Ghamizi, Vincent Prié, Arthur E. Bogan, Manuel Lopes Lima
Strength recovery in quartzite is controlled by changes in friction in experiments at hydrothermal conditions up to 200°C
The rate of fault zone restrengthening between earthquakes can be influenced by both frictional and cohesive healing processes. Friction is dependent on effective normal stress while cohesion is independent of normal stress, potentially explaining—in part—the lack of depth dependence of earthquake stress drops. Although amenable to laboratory testing, few studies have systematically addressed the
Authors
Tamara Nicole Jeppson, David A. Lockner, Nicholas M. Beeler, Stephen H. Hickman
Kings of the North: Bridging disciplines to understand the effects of changing climate on Chinook salmon in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim Region
Understanding how species are responding to environmental change is a central challenge for stewards and managers of fish and wildlife who seek to maintain harvest opportunities for communities and Indigenous peoples. This is a particularly daunting but increasingly important task in remote, high-latitude regions where environmental conditions are changing rapidly and data collection is logistical
Authors
Megan L. Feddern, Erik R. Schoen, Rebecca Shaftel, Curry J. Cunningham, Craig Chythlook, Brendan M. Connors, Alyssa D. Murdoch, Vanessa R. von Biela, Brooke Woods
Contributions to uncertainty in runup forecasts
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides operational forecasts of total water levels (TWL) and coastal change. Uncertainties around forecast TWL are based on the temporal and spatial range of observed beach slopes near the forecast site. This paper investigates other sources of uncertainty that are not accounted for, focusing on four beaches where the USGS has deployed remote cameras, and on out
Authors
Christopher R. Sherwood, Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Peter A. Traykovski, Jin-Si R. Over, Erin Lyons, David S. Foster, Jennifer L. Miselis, Timothy Nelson, Erdinc Sogut
Exploring the relevance of the multidimensionality of wildlife recreationists to conservation behaviors: A case study in Virginia
Wildlife recreationists' participation in conservation behaviors could provide key support to the conservation efforts of state fish and wildlife agencies. However, little is known about how identifying with multiple forms of wildlife recreation (i.e., hunters, anglers, birders, wildlife viewers) may influence participation in conservation behaviors, specifically for supporting state fish and wild
Authors
Bennett Grooms, Ashley A. Dayer, Jessica Barnes, Ashley Peele, Jonathan D. Rutter, Nicholas Cole
Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape
In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the prob
Authors
Lucas Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Kimberlie Perkins, Lulin Xue, Yaping Wang