Publications
Educational Publications
Educational Publications
Selected publications about earthquakes In plain language.
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Using geologic structures to constrain constitutive laws not accessible in the laboratory
In this essay, we explore a central problem of structural geology today, and in the foreseeable future, which is the determination of constitutive laws governing rock deformation to produce geologic structures. Although laboratory experiments provide much needed data and insights about constitutive laws, these experiments cannot cover the range of conditions and compositions relevant to the format
Authors
Johanna Nevitt, Jessica M. Warren, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, David D. Pollard
Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we probe the circ
Authors
Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein
ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations
In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The proba
Authors
Carlo Cauzzi, Donat Fah, David J. Wald, John Clinton, Stephane Losey, Stefan Wiemer
Regional spectral analysis of moderate earthquakes in northeastern North America—Final Report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Project V6240, Task 3
We analyze the Fourier spectra of S+Lg+surface wave groups from the horizontal and vertical components of broadband and accelerogram recordings of 120 small and moderate (2< Mw <6) earthquakes recorded by Canadian and American stations sited on rock at distances from 3 to 600 kilometers. There are seven Mw 4.0–4.5, six Mw 4.5–5.0, and three Mw ≥5 earthquakes in this event set. We test the regional
Authors
Jack Boatwright
Landslides triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand
The 14 November 2016 MwMw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake generated more than 10,000 landslides over a total area of about 10,000 km210,000 km2, with the majority concentrated in a smaller area of about 3600 km23600 km2. The largest landslide triggered by the earthquake had an approximate volume of 20(±2) M m320(±2) M m3, with a runout distance of about 2.7 km, forming a dam on the Hapuku River. In
Authors
C. Massey, D. Townsend, Ellen M. Rathje, Kate E. Allstadt, B. Lukovic, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Brendon A. Bradley, J. Wartman, Randall W. Jibson, D. N. Petley, Nick Horspool, I. Hamling, J. Carey, S. Cox, John Davidson, S. Dellow, Jonathan W. Godt, Christopher Holden, Katherine D. Jones, Anna E. Kaiser, M. Little, B. Lyndsell, S. McColl, R. Morgenstern, Francis K. Rengers, D. Rhoades, B. Rosser, D. Strong, C. Singeisen, M. Villeneuve
Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we con
Authors
Yuehua Zeng
Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New results and future directions
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests and authoritative data sets, to assess the predictive skill of forecast models and to make objective comparisons between models. CSEP conducts prospective experiments at four testing centers around the world, a
Authors
Andrew J. Michael, Maximillian J. Werner
Ensemble smoothed seismicity models for the new Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map
We develop a long‐term (a few decades or longer) earthquake rate forecast for Italy based on smoothed seismicity for incorporation in the 2017–2018 Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps (IPSHM). Because the earthquake rate models from previous IPSHM were computed using source zones that were drawn around seismicity and tectonic provinces, the present model will be the first introduction of the
Authors
Aybige Akinci, Morgan P. Moschetti, Matteo Taroni
Reexamination of the subsurface fault structure in the vicinity of the 1989 moment-magnitude-6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, central California, using steep-reflection, earthquake, and magnetic data
We reexamine the geometry of the causative fault structure of the 1989 moment-magnitude-6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake in central California, using seismic-reflection, earthquake-hypocenter, and magnetic data. Our study is prompted by recent interpretations of a two-part dip of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) accompanied by a flower-like structure in the Coachella Valley, in southern California. Initially
Authors
Edward Zhang, Gary S. Fuis, Rufus D. Catchings, Daniel S. Scheirer, Mark Goldman, Klaus Bauer
Broadband ground‐motion simulation of the 2011 Mw 6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake
This study presents the details and results of hybrid broadband (0–10 Hz) ground‐motion simulations for the 2011 MwMw 6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake. The simulations utilize a 3D velocity model and a kinematic source model with stochastic realizations of the slip amplitude, rise time, and rake angle. The resulting ground motions capture the salient basin amplification effects that are s
Authors
Hoby N. T. Razafindrakoto, Brendon A. Bradley, Robert Graves
Injection-induced moment release can also be aseismic
The cumulative seismic moment is a robust measure of the earthquake response to fluid injection for injection volumes ranging from 3100 to about 12 million m3. Over this range, the moment release is limited to twice the product of the shear modulus and the volume of injected fluid. This relation also applies at the much smaller injection volumes of the field experiment in France reported by Guglie
Authors
Arthur McGarr, Andrew J. Barbour
The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates
The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictab
Authors
Sarah E. Minson, Men-Andrin Meier, Annemarie S. Baltay, Thomas C. Hanks, Elizabeth S. Cochran