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Publications

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Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data

Fault creep, depending on its rate and spatial extent, is thought to reduce earthquake hazard by releasing tectonic strain aseismically. We use Bayesian inversion and a newly expanded GPS data set to infer the deep slip rates below assigned locking depths on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults of Northern California and, for the latter two, the spatially variable interseismic cre
Authors
Jessica R. Murray, Sarah E. Minson, Jerry L. Svarc

U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeCast: A cloud-based future

When an earthquake occurs, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap portrays the extent of potentially damaging shaking. In turn, the ShakeCast system, a freely-available, post-earthquake situational awareness application, automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap, compares intensity measures against users’ facilities, sends notifications of potential damage to responsi
Authors
David J. Wald, Kuo-Wan Lin, Loren Turner, Nebi Bekiri

Arroyo channel head evolution in a flash-flood-dominated discontinuous ephemeral stream system

We study whether arroyo channel head retreat in dryland discontinuous ephemeral streams is driven by surface runoff, seepage erosion, mass wasting, or some combination of these hydrogeomorphic processes. We monitored precipitation, overland flow, soil moisture, and headcut migration over several seasonal cycles at two adjacent rangeland channel heads in southern Arizona. Erosion occurred by headwa
Authors
Stephen B. DeLong, Joel P. L. Johnson, Kelin X. Whipple

Engineering uses of physics-based ground motion simulations

This paper summarizes validation methodologies focused on enabling ground motion simulations to be used with confidence in engineering applications such as seismic hazard analysis and dynmaic analysis of structural and geotechnical systems. Numberical simullation of ground motion from large erthquakes, utilizing physics-based models of earthquake rupture and wave propagation, is an area of active
Authors
Jack W. Baker, Nicolas Luco, Norman A. Abrahamson, Robert W. Graves, Phillip J. Maechling, Kim Olsen

Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be use
Authors
Rui Chen, David M. Branum, Chris J. Wills, David P. Hill

Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2012 Java and vicinity

The Sunda convergent margin extends for 5,600 km from the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, both located northwest of the map area, towards the island of Sumba in the southeast, and then continues eastward as the Banda arc system. This tectonically active margin is a result of the India and Australia plates converging with and subducting beneath the Sunda plate at a rate of approximately 50 to 70
Authors
Eric S. Jones, Gavin P. Hayes, Melissa Bernardino, Fransiska K. Dannemann, Kevin P. Furlong, Harley M. Benz, Antonio Villaseñor

How complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

The International Seismological Centre, in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model effort, has released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness (Mc) as a function of time by dividing the earthquakes shallower than 60 km into 7 time perio
Authors
Andrew J. Michael

The earthquake cycle in the San Francisco Bay region: A.D. 1600–2012

Stress changes produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a profound effect on the seismicity of the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR), dramatically reducing it in the twentieth century. Whether the SFBR is still within or has emerged from this seismic quiescence is an issue of debate with implications for earthquake mechanics and seismic hazards. Historically, the SFBR has not experienced on
Authors
David P. Schwartz, James J. Lienkaemper, Suzanne Hecker, Keith I. Kelson, Thomas E. Fumal, John N. Baldwin, Gordon G. Seitz, Tina Niemi

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

In this overview we report results of analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs in various tectonic settings within the framework of the European Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of Induced Seismicity in Reservoirs (GEISER) project. In the reconnaissance phase of a field, the subsurface fault mapping, in situ stress and the seismic network are of primary interest in order
Authors
Arno Zang, Volker Oye, Philippe Jousset, Nicholas Deichmann, Roland Gritto, Arthur F. McGarr, Ernest Majer, David Bruhn

Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan

Recent earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan show that it is important to consider the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks following large magnitude events since the probability of high intensity ground motions from aftershocks, which are capable of causing significant societal impact, can be considerable. This is due to the fact that a mainshock will have many aftershocks, some of whi
Authors
Nilesh Shome, Nicolas Luco, Matt Gerstenberger, Oliver S. Boyd, Edward H. Field, Abbie Liel, John W. van de Lindt

Relationship between the Cascadia fore-arc mantle wedge, nonvolcanic tremor, and the downdip limit of seismogenic rupture

Great earthquakes anticipated on the Cascadia subduction fault can potentially rupture beyond the geodetically and thermally inferred locked zone to the depths of episodic tremor and slip (ETS) or to the even deeper fore-arc mantle corner (FMC). To evaluate these extreme rupture limits, we map the FMC from southern Vancouver Island to central Oregon by combining published seismic velocity structur
Authors
Patricia A. McCrory, Roy D. Hyndman, J. Luke Blair

Rethinking turbidite paleoseismology along the Cascadia subduction zone

A stratigraphic synthesis of dozens of deep-sea cores, most of them overlooked in recent decades, provides new insights into deep-sea turbidites as guides to earthquake and tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone, which extends 1100 km along the Pacific coast of North America. The synthesis shows greater variability in Holocene stratigraphy and facies off the Washington coast than was r
Authors
Brian F. Atwater, Bobb Carson, Gary B. Griggs, H. Paul Johnson, Marie Salmi